Flip the Cards Over

[QTip]

Now, I have to ask this.

Why is it that uninformed players make this +EV call, and we don't? What are we seeing here that makes us fold?

The flop raiser is a solid tag. What type of range do we give him here?

Let's say the PFRer is also a tighter and aggressive player. What are we giving him here?

[SippinSoma]

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Why is it that uninformed players make this +EV call, and we don't? What are we seeing here that makes us fold?


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When there is a bet, a call, and a raise, all 3 players will have <= 2 outs very rarely.

a cold calling button will usually have (depending on his stats) aq/aj(usually suited)/at(suited,hopefully for him)/99/88/77(maybe)/kq/kjs.
so after rasing the flop i'd reduce him to aq/aj/88/99(creative).
PFRer should have approximatly 88+/ATs+/KTs+
since in reality we DON'T know the others' cards we can't take out the possibility of a reraise/cap and the possibility of drawing alomost dead (no outs vs 88s as running T's get us killed) and have 4-5 outs vs the button's other possible holdings.
ran Pstove with these hands and gace CO hands with 8's and 4's (no aces though as assumed he'd raise)and pairs 77-
(might be too narrow as he could be an idiot), and BB has 13.1% equity.
MP1 will reraise AT+ here ~50-60% of the time with the hand range i gave him and implied odds depend on CO and button calling (button would call).
pot odds are not there (4.5 outs), need to calculate implied but must leave here, will try tomorrow. intuition tells me BB is short on his implied odds for a call (will need to pay at least 4 sb, probably 5 so he needs 40 sb in the pot by the end).

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Why is it that uninformed players make this +EV call, and we don't? What are we seeing here that makes us fold?

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What makes me laugh my ass off:

A 2+2er is much more likely to make the flop bet from MP1 with only 4% equity than they are to make the call from BB with 20% equity.

AHAHAHAHAAHAAHhhAAAHHAaH


Good post. It's got me thinking.