|
#1
|
|||
|
|||
Re: 5/10: Controlling how many bets go in on the river
[ QUOTE ]
Then calling has an expectation of -.4 BBs (ignoring what's already in the pot - you're obviously not folding). Raising has an expectation of .6 - .3*2 -.1*1= -.1. [/ QUOTE ] not sure how you did your calc's... I tried doing it myself (only counting bets going in on the river), and came up with: ev(calling) = 0.2 ev(raising) = 2*0.6 - 2*0.1 - 3*.3 = 0.1 assuming ahead 60%, when behind he just calls 10% and 3bets 30% |
#2
|
|||
|
|||
Re: 5/10: Controlling how many bets go in on the river
Well, I didn't count BB's first bet on the river in my calculations on the theory that it is going to be there no matter what we do. So thinking at the margin, that bet "shouldn't count", right?
Honestly, I have no idea if this makes any sense at all though. |
#3
|
|||
|
|||
Re: 5/10: Controlling how many bets go in on the river
The way I see this, we are likely screwed here so I wouldn't carry it any further and just take it to SD. The majority of his hand range beats us, and he IS going crazy even though your 3-bet should have told him, yes, you too have a flush. Do you really think he is going nuts with something like 65 or 52? Even if it were so, we are still more likely to be behind.
|
#4
|
|||
|
|||
Re: 5/10: Controlling how many bets go in on the river
[ QUOTE ]
The way I see this, we are likely screwed here so I wouldn't carry it any further and just take it to SD. [/ QUOTE ] Bump for day crew. FWIW I thought a flopped two pair or a J with a big heart was more likely than a flopped set or another flush. But those are possible, too. |
#5
|
|||
|
|||
Re: 5/10: Controlling how many bets go in on the river
Purely on an intuitive level, I'd just call that river.
I actually don't think he's got a higher flush. Because in that case, I believe he'd try a stopngo on the turn (i.e., just call the 3-bet and plan a c/r on the river). So that leaves the choices of a smaller flush or 2 pair or trips. Put a gun to my head and I say he had trips on the turn. But this is all based on hunches, not anything reliable like probabilities. |
|
|