25-50 NL AA hand

[adanthar]

El D,

With these stacks and bet sizes, the decision whether to continue (either to push or call/CR) has to be made on the flop. Given the type of game this is, unless you never LRR with anything other than big pairs, I think it's virtually impossible to avoid going broke on exactly a J32 board. There are simply way too many possible hands that will pop it there, almost all of which you beat.

However, given that you are going broke here, I think the real issue is with the bet sizes and if the hero wanted to avoid this, he should have been thinking about pot control the entire way through. Potting it twice simply means you pay off the better hand, whereas making it 500-550 PF, then 800 on the flop, would have given hero a lot of breathing room. OTOH, that also means 99 pays off less, so...you know the game much better than I do, where's the profitability break point?

[Sykes]

The real question is:

If El D pushes, How often is he getting called by TP/QQ/KK/flush draw? Do these times outweigh the time that villian calls when Diablo is in bad shape (22/33/JJ/J2/J3)?


Let's do some stoving:

Against 2 pair or better
equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 26.4366 % 26.44% 00.00% { AdAs }
Hand 2: 73.5634 % 73.56% 00.00% { JJ, 33-22, J3s-J2s, 32s, J3o-J2o, 32o }

So about a 3 to 1 dog to 2 pair or better.

Against hands like TP(JT-AJ)/QQ/KK/flushdraw(eg. T9s)/straight flush draw (45s):

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 84.2967 % 84.21% 00.08% { AdAs }
Hand 2: 15.7033 % 15.62% 00.08% { KK-QQ, AJs, KJs, QJs, Td9d, 5d4d, AJo, KJo, QJo, JTo }

So, we're a 6 to 1 favorite against this range.


With everything:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 60.8926 % 60.84% 00.05% { AdAs }
Hand 2: 39.1074 % 39.06% 00.05% { KK-JJ, 33-22, AJs, KJs, QJs, J3s-J2s, Td9d, 5d4d, 32s, AJo, KJo, QJo, JTo, J3o-J2o, 32o }

We're 60/40.


So, all it boils down to is:

What will he do on the turn if we call here and check to him? What if we donk bet the turn?

How often will he call here with TP or an overpair? If it's often, I suggest push.

Honestly, just guessing here, I think he has a made hand but can't beat the J on board and is hoping that his min-raise takes it down right here.