flopped a low flush... now what?

[Nottom]

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If a "good" player calls a bet on the river, our hero loses more times than he wins, which makes betting poor.

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Who said anything about his opponent being "good"?

[Wyrm2]

It's .50/1 Party, so assuming that my opponent is good is a bit much [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] Seriously though, I really didn't think that he had a K on the turn, because I'm pretty sure that most microlimit players would bet it (I could be wrong about that). When I bet on the river, the only thing I was worried about was the jack, and I thought chances were pretty good that he'd make a crying call with an 8 or a 6 (decent sized pot and I only have to be bluffing about 10% for it to be correct for him to call).

That said, I do have a bit of a leak when it comes to betting the river when only hands that can beat me will call...

[Kevin J]

Well, I can tell you that unless I thought my opponent played very poorly (in this case the poster), I would NOT bet a king or jack of clubs on the turn. Now I admit that because I play quite a bit higher than this (60X's this limit), my opponents are much more sophisticated. But nevertheless, betting the 4th club on the turn without the nuts has little value against ANY player who went 3 bets with you on this flop. If he has an Ac (when you hold the Kc), or a Kc (when you hold the Jc), you can only lose money. On the other hand, by checking you are more likely to get paid off when your hand IS best. Lastly and perhaps most importanly, there is very little danger in giving a free card.

Just look at how this hand turns out if his opponent DID have the K or J of clubs. Hero checks the turn and his opponent checks behind. Now hero bets the river because of this check and gets raised by the Kc and called by the Jc when his opponent probably shouldn't have even collected 1 more bet from a ten-high flush. Does this make sense?

[Wyrm2]

Yeah, actually that makes a lot of sense, and it's something I'll keep in mind (interesting that the whole discussion here has centered around the one thing I was pretty sure I did correctly [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] )

[eh923]

I agree with nottum on this one. In my world (micro-limits), people can't seem to help but call when they think that they'll chop. It may be true that you leak money on the river, but this isn't a good example.

[Nottom]

This might make sence at $30/$60 but his play is fine for .5/1.

Hell we had people advocating a bet from a 9-high flush into 2-opponents in a thread not too long ago. I didn't agree with that one, but I think this play is a money maker at these limits. Remember if there is one thing a .5/1 player likes to do, its call.

[Kevin J]

But..

1. Neither the king nor jack of clubs is the nuts on the turn.

2. There are very few cards which can beat you when your hand is good.

3. You can get called or check/raised by a better hand in which case, you'll be sorry you bet.

4. Betting will likely cause a worse hand to fold.

5. By checking, you are more likely to gain a bet from inducing a bluff or call from a worse hand on the river who would have folded had you bet the turn.

The bottom line is that checking the turn behind a reasonable player (I'm assuming the poster is a reasonable player), will usually hold more +EV.

These are really very simple (but important) concepts to understand. If you ever plan on beating higher limit games, you need to weigh everything, not just "Gee, I probably have the best hand so I'll bet". I'm trying to be helpful not snotty, so this is the last I'll say on this. If you don't want to think further about why checking is usually the better play, then that's up to you.

[Nottom]

I understand the concept fine. In fact, I usually think people on these boards go a little overboard at times with the "bet the river" talk. At a higher-stakes game against competant opponents you are most liekly correct.

On a party .5/1 game against morons, this is an easy bet. Value betting mediocre hands is a key to beating these micro/low-limit games.