raised 99 with Ace on flop against pfreraiser

friends-

Don't cap preflop with 99.

Sykes is correct, check/fold. Hero missed this flop and doesn't have the odds to continue, especially against a TAG.

Do you normally play tables this tight? If so, I recommned seeking out some looser tables.

Regards, LG

[tiltaholic]

[ QUOTE ]
friends-

Don't cap preflop with 99.

Sykes is correct, check/fold. Hero missed this flop and doesn't have the odds to continue, especially against a TAG.

Do you normally play tables this tight? If so, I recommned seeking out some looser tables.

Regards, LG

[/ QUOTE ]

he's likely weak - so i'd fire a bet on the flop.
what hands raise UTG but won't cap it preflop? any tag will know you have AQ or AJ...if he has JJ-KK he's folding a lot here.

(and i wouldn't cap preflop out of position against this guy)

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
friends-

Don't cap preflop with 99.

Sykes is correct, check/fold. Hero missed this flop and doesn't have the odds to continue, especially against a TAG.

Do you normally play tables this tight? If so, I recommned seeking out some looser tables.

Regards, LG

[/ QUOTE ]

he's likely weak - so i'd fire a bet on the flop.
what hands raise UTG but won't cap it preflop? any tag will know you have AQ or AJ...if he has JJ-KK he's folding a lot here.

(and i wouldn't cap preflop out of position against this guy)

[/ QUOTE ]

As always, tilt, you rock. What would your play be if he raises? Fold? Call and fold turn UI?

[tiltaholic]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
friends-

Don't cap preflop with 99.

Sykes is correct, check/fold. Hero missed this flop and doesn't have the odds to continue, especially against a TAG.

Do you normally play tables this tight? If so, I recommned seeking out some looser tables.

Regards, LG

[/ QUOTE ]

he's likely weak - so i'd fire a bet on the flop.
what hands raise UTG but won't cap it preflop? any tag will know you have AQ or AJ...if he has JJ-KK he's folding a lot here.

(and i wouldn't cap preflop out of position against this guy)

[/ QUOTE ]

As always, tilt, you rock. What would your play be if he raises? Fold? Call and fold turn UI?

[/ QUOTE ]

i fold if he raises the flop.

[friends]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
friends-

Don't cap preflop with 99.

Sykes is correct, check/fold. Hero missed this flop and doesn't have the odds to continue, especially against a TAG.

Do you normally play tables this tight? If so, I recommned seeking out some looser tables.

Regards, LG

[/ QUOTE ]

he's likely weak - so i'd fire a bet on the flop.
what hands raise UTG but won't cap it preflop? any tag will know you have AQ or AJ...if he has JJ-KK he's folding a lot here.

(and i wouldn't cap preflop out of position against this guy)

[/ QUOTE ]

I get 1:7 to my flop bet, that means I need only 14% of success to break even. According to probability of 30% of KK, QQ, JJ, TT, TAG should fold half of the time with such hands to give me the profit.
I think the bet on TAG would be correct, weak players as I notice calls their QQ to the end anyway.

[Sykes]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
friends-

Don't cap preflop with 99.

Sykes is correct, check/fold. Hero missed this flop and doesn't have the odds to continue, especially against a TAG.

Do you normally play tables this tight? If so, I recommned seeking out some looser tables.

Regards, LG

[/ QUOTE ]

he's likely weak - so i'd fire a bet on the flop.
what hands raise UTG but won't cap it preflop? any tag will know you have AQ or AJ...if he has JJ-KK he's folding a lot here.

(and i wouldn't cap preflop out of position against this guy)

[/ QUOTE ]

I get 1:7 to my flop bet, that means I need only 14% of success to break even. According to probability of 30% of KK, QQ, JJ, TT, TAG should fold half of the time with such hands to give me the profit.
I think the bet on TAG would be correct, weak players as I notice calls their QQ to the end anyway.

[/ QUOTE ]

I must be weak then because I'm NEVER releasing QQ on this board.

your possible plays are:

1. check/fold
this is the safest, low variance play. Given the button's stats this probably the best play.

2. bet to see where you are
the most likely scenario is you bet, he calls, you check, he bets, you fold. A player this tight most likely will not fold, and the moment you show weakness he'll probably bet you.

3. check-raise
tricky plays like this at low limits are probably pointless, but he'll probably remember you forever if you show down the 99.

[tiltaholic]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
friends-

Don't cap preflop with 99.

Sykes is correct, check/fold. Hero missed this flop and doesn't have the odds to continue, especially against a TAG.

Do you normally play tables this tight? If so, I recommned seeking out some looser tables.

Regards, LG

[/ QUOTE ]

he's likely weak - so i'd fire a bet on the flop.
what hands raise UTG but won't cap it preflop? any tag will know you have AQ or AJ...if he has JJ-KK he's folding a lot here.

(and i wouldn't cap preflop out of position against this guy)

[/ QUOTE ]

I get 1:7 to my flop bet, that means I need only 14% of success to break even. According to probability of 30% of KK, QQ, JJ, TT, TAG should fold half of the time with such hands to give me the profit.
I think the bet on TAG would be correct, weak players as I notice calls their QQ to the end anyway.

[/ QUOTE ]

your usage of "weak" is incorrect.
a weak player will tend to fold.
a passive player will tend to call down.

calling down with QQ on an ace high board is playing passively.
folding with QQ on an ace high board is playing weakly.

how do you figure he has KK-TT 30% of the time?

[friends]

[ QUOTE ]

your usage of "weak" is incorrect.
a weak player will tend to fold.
a passive player will tend to call down.


[/ QUOTE ]

Very interesting interpretation.
According to mine weak means "not reasonable", the contrary to strong: "reasonable".
When there is a raise from early position, and the raiser is TAG, that means he has AT, AJ, AQ, AK, AA, KK, QQ, JJ, TT, the probability of KK, QQ, JJ, TT (especially if this player did not cap preflop about 25-27%, that means 3/4 of time this player has an Ace in his hand. With, for example, KK you should pay 2,5BB to get to know the truth, that means that on the flop (when I bet) you have a bit more than 1:1 in pot odds to win by the river, and your chances to win are maximum 1:3 (25% I have lower middle pair +10% of catching a set), that means, that calling with KK for you to the end means -EV.
That is not strong play, strong play is to fold or to raise and to see the reaction.
Where did I find the figures?
The probability to get AA (KK or 44) on preflop -1/220, AK (AQ, AT) - 1/82.

[tiltaholic]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

your usage of "weak" is incorrect.
a weak player will tend to fold.
a passive player will tend to call down.


[/ QUOTE ]

Very interesting interpretation.
According to mine weak means "not reasonable", the contrary to strong: "reasonable".
When there is a raise from early position, and the raiser is TAG, that means he has AT, AJ, AQ, AK, AA, KK, QQ, JJ, TT, the probability of KK, QQ, JJ, TT (especially if this player did not cap preflop about 25-27%, that means 3/4 of time this player has an Ace in his hand. With, for example, KK you should pay 2,5BB to get to know the truth, that means that on the flop (when I bet) you have a bit more than 1:1 in pot odds to win by the river, and your chances to win are maximum 1:3 (25% I have lower middle pair +10% of catching a set), that means, that calling with KK for you to the end means -EV.
That is not strong play, strong play is to fold or to raise and to see the reaction.
Where did I find the figures?
The probability to get AA (KK or 44) on preflop -1/220, AK (AQ, AT) - 1/82.

[/ QUOTE ]

i'm not picking on you.
but in the language of poker, weak does not mean "not reasonable".

i still think your calculations are wrong.
on an ace high board (one ace present) these are the possible combinations of hands that a tag will 3-bet preflop:

AA - 6 combinations
KK - 12
QQ - 12
JJ - 12
TT - 12
AQ - 12
AK - 12

note- i think most tags won't 3-bet AQ, so i think it should be AQs only, but i'll leave it as AQ and 12.

those numbers mean that there are 30 ways for him to have an ace (AA, AK, AQ) and 48 ways for him to have KK-TT. you can play with the numbers and other hands like AJs to see how it works out. but 30/78 he has an ace, or about 37% of the time.

and your statement about strong vs weak play doesn't make sense. sometimes it is correct (very strong) to take a passive line and simply call down. sometimes that same line is not strong play.

but you get the idea...