A 2-Hour Experiment in Folding

[damaniac]

1. So many draws are in now, not many people are bluff-raising a river after so much action. Looks good.
2. Ditto, c/r river is not a worse A very often.
3. More divided, but a flush/deuce are likely holdings, and we have no redraws. I'm tempted to call in case he's semi-bluffing the A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
4. I really dislike this fold. Dry flop, the guy could bet a lot of hands you beat here. At least call, probably raise.
5. Every draw (spades, T9) or a slowplayed Q beats you, and maybe AJ. I hate folding to a river-donk, but this looks like as good a time as any.
6. I don't like. He could play JJ like this, and maybe TT (more aggressively cuz he has a gutshot too). In any event, if he has AA/KK (6 combos each), QQ (once, tie), and JJ half as often (so 3), we need 5:1 to call down profitably (a little less since we can get extra bets when we spike a Q but we don't lose anymore if he hits a J...actually we could fold then). If he has that, and the other player as a 9, we have about 18% equity, and are getting something like 32:5 to call down, and we can fold a lot of nasty cards and save bets. Call.
7. Looks good. He'll have AK/AQ a decent amount of the time and the pot's big. Q not a good card for you.
8. Maybe call the raise and bet/call the river. I don't like folding but you don't look to be in good shape. Still, maybe he figured your flop donk was a weaker A, not expecting you to donk a J. I dunno.
9. Closer, as you are behind two pair a lot of the time. But sometimes you are behind a straight/set, so I think that swings it to a fold.
10. Yeah that's just a fugly board for your hand. Even though he could be stealing with a busted straight draw or something, most of the time he has an A/K/spades.
11. I feel like you should have put in a raise somewhere. If UTG2's stats are meant for BB, definitely raise the flop, or, failing that, the turn. You should have lost more.