NCAA BB Game of the Century - Louisville +2 vs. Kentucky

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A great team has good enough depth and talent to withstand and counteract foul trouble/injuries/bad shooting etc. which are all part of the game.


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This may be true in other sports, or even NCAA BB 10 years ago, but not currently. The talent pool in college is so thin that even the best teams only have a few really good players, even fewer good bigs...you take Redick off Duke, Rondo off UK, Gibson off Texas (see today's game), etc., and those teams are really going to struggle.

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Therefore your bet was weak because a good player getting into early foul trouble certainly isn't outside the realm of possibility, no?

The point is....you really need to think about these things ahead of time before you're so certain a wager is anywhere near "lock" status; otherwise you're likely to get creamed in the long-run.

Edit: and that would be true even if you won the bet. If there's a somewhat likely scenario you failed to account for in your original analysis, it is way off.