Is this deal fair?

pokerlover · #1 11-23-2003, 04:09 AM

down to 3 players.

Prize money is as follows:
1-5222.00
2-3480.00
3-2070.60

Chip leader has aproxamitley T180,000
2nd and 3rd are about even with 44000ish

the deal was the 2 small stacks will split 2nd and 3rd place money and recieve 225 each from the 1st place money.

Does this favor anyone in particular or is this fair all the way around???

Thanks in advance for the replies.

Bozeman · #2 11-23-2003, 11:08 AM

This deal favors the big stack, but not that much.

From my 3-way deal calculator ( twd ), the big stack should get 4593 while in this deal he got 4772.

slamdunkpro · #3 11-23-2003, 03:48 PM

It looks to me like the third place stack is the big winner. His pot goes up be a third.

I don't know about fair but if I was the second stack I'd hesitate to take it.

pokerlover · #4 11-23-2003, 04:12 PM

2nd and 3rd were even

LetsRock · #5 11-24-2003, 01:52 PM

OK, I'm a bit confused (no big feat) and I'n not any expert at toourney deals, but it looks to me like the big stack is getting a bad deal.

He has 67% of the chips, shouldn't he get at least 67% of the purse +/- $7200?

Why would he be giving up any of his share? (unless he was just afraid to play)

Seems to me, that the least deal the chip leader should take would be 100% of first place, 2nd and 3rd can do what they want with the rest.

Bozeman · #6 11-24-2003, 02:52 PM

Since first place is only 48.5% of the money, this is the absolute most he can hope for. Blatant advertisement: try my threeway calculator.

Craig

Greg (FossilMan) · #7 11-24-2003, 06:08 PM

[ QUOTE ]
He has 67% of the chips, shouldn't he get at least 67% of the purse +/- $7200?

[/ QUOTE ]
Think about it a bit more. If they play it out a million times, will the chip leader average a return that is more or less than the stated first prize amount? Less, right? Then he should be willing to make a deal for less than first prize as well (assuming he wishes to make a fair deal at all, that is).

[ QUOTE ]
Seems to me, that the least deal the chip leader should take would be 100% of first place, 2nd and 3rd can do what they want with the rest.

[/ QUOTE ]
Again, in a FAIR deal, why should he get 100% of first prize, since that is the BEST he could ever hope for if they played it out, but if they do play it out, he will sometimes (about 1/3 of the time) do worse than first prize money?

Later, Greg Raymer (FossilMan)

LetsRock · #8 11-24-2003, 06:17 PM

Like I said I'm no expert in this field, but if I'm the guy with that many chips, I'm not taking any deal that doesn't give me at least full winner's share at this stage.

First place is no guarantee, but I'll take my chances (unless I'm staring across the table at Doyle Brunson or the like!)

Bozeman · #9 11-24-2003, 06:56 PM

You will most likely get first place, but about 30% of the time, you will not. This means that a fair deal means taking about $600 less than first place money.

Craig

Ignatius · #10 11-24-2003, 10:40 PM

The only assumtion that seems to be generally agreed on is that the propability to finish first is proportional to the chip count. Therefore, the first place money in any fair deal would have to be between 5133.82 (pretending a payout of 6631.40/2070.60/2070.60 which favors the big stack) and 4418.61 (pretending a payout of 5222.00/2775.30/2775.30 which favors the small stacks). In the actual deal, the big stack got 4772 which is amost exactly in the middle between these two extremes, so I'd say that, from chip count alone, this deal is about as fair as it gets.
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Of course, an overall fair deal would also consider the location of the button, who is 3rd stack (even if it's only by a single chip) and skill differences.