#11
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Re: what to do with AA in this situation
Well, I felt that he was going to do this more often than not with a Qx hand probalby AQ or QK, and after his raise, he only had $1 left in his stack, i just reraised him all in.
River was blank, and he turns over JQ for the boat and wins. |
#12
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Re: what to do with AA in this situation
With two opponents seeing the flop I don't think it is that unlikely that one of them could have a jack. A reraise on this flop with a 3 way pot is a pretty strong statement in my experience. It's a dangerous board. I definately wouldn't expect a stone bluff. The small blind could be going for a check raise or check call with trips. You could have the trips, or the overpair, or the queen with a better kicker and bet out.
His vpip is very high so I am making his preflop range pretty wide. AJ: 4 ways KJ: 8 ways JT: 8 ways J9: 8 ways J8: 8 ways Or the full house: QQ: 3 ways QJ: 4 ways Or quads: JJ 1 way I'll take out QQ since he could have raised preflop total: 41 ways Obviously KK could reraise here all short stacked. KK: 6 ways The argument for the queen is that your opponent is short stacked. And rather than call it down he could go all in to get folding equity and to protect the hand from straights or overcards. But this is a somewhat dangerous board to do with the pair jacks out there. AQ: 6 ways KQ: 12 ways QT: 12 ways Q9: 12 ways Q8: 12 ways Q7: 12 ways total: 66 ways Other option is the semi bluff. There are only a few draws here that are primary draws. Namely T9 and KT. AK is only a gutshot draw and he could have reraised preflop although he could call too. Something like T8 or 89 with would produce inside straight draws too. I wouldn't really expect a semibluff from a solid or passive player here. I would only expect one from an aggressive player. I wouldn't expect an all in semibluff with the inside straight draw without a read. Only if very aggressive: T9: 16 ways KT: 16 ways As you can see with these assumptions there are 47 ways he could have you beat. And 72 ways he could have a pair of queens or kings. So it is only like 1:1.75 (not including bluffs) that you have him beat assuming that he would bet them the same way. And not bet any other hands. But with the betting going the way it went I would say he very likely has you beat. The one thing that bothers me is that he is short stacked. Your getting 1:2 pot odds approximately to see the hand to completion. You have 2 outs to win almost for certain. That gives you about 8.5% or 1:10.75 to draw out. I notice that people don't really make that play short stacked - reraising all in early short stacked at this level as often as they should. I don't think too many players understand that play. Without a read that he is very aggressive or a maniac or that he semi bluffs. Or that he would certainly reraise all in with a queen. I would probably lay down the hand because it isn't that unlikely for someone to have a jack as you might think. |
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