#11
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Re: I just give up on AT
[ QUOTE ]
not betting this flop makes me want to vomit... its possibly the worst mistake you can make [/ QUOTE ] Yeah, this seems like silly macho-talk. If check-folding this thing is a mistake, I doubt it's too big a mistake, and I don't see why this line doesn't compare reasonably favorably to, say, continuating betting into three people, maybe firing a second barrel if you get two folds, and c/f'ing, c/cing or bluff-betting the river UI. |
#12
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Re: I just give up on AT
I think I'd take a crack at betting the flop.
On the turn, good fold. You've got someone betting into two opponents and you've got ace high. |
#13
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Re: I just give up on AT
On a flop as innocent as 2J4 rainbow, I think you have to take a shot. If they're tight, they'll fold unless they missed. If they're loose, they'll probably give you a free river. The only reason I can see for checking is if you think there is a zero chance of the button folding, but you said the button is tight, so if he calls or raises, it's pretty easy to get away from, right?
Speaking of giving up on AT... Last night I was looking at a pro friend of mine's PT stats. He plays mostly 25/50, plays 75/150 whenever anybody sits down, and totally crushes 15/30 short-handed games. So, I decided to check out his position stats. He's folding ATo 80% of the time UTG in 6-handed games. He's also folding KQo 100% of the time. He's also raising 66 and 55 100% of the time UTG, though. I think this is more a factor of how tight/aggressive the games are. The bottom line is that ATo is a top 10% hand, and unless you're in a game where you're going to get 3-bet pre-flop every time there's a better hand out there, you have to raise it UTG. Against typical players, it's just a straightforward raise for value. |
#14
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Re: I just give up on AT
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] You guys don't think we have the best hand on this flop a decent amount of the time? [/ QUOTE ] I think we have the best hand here a large percentage of the time as well, although lately I have been looking to find more spots to check the flop instead of making a continuation bet 100% of the time. It is 4 handed with a tight coldcaller. So basically all I can say is that I think its close either way. [/ QUOTE ] Lately I've been looking for more flops to bet 4 handed and more flops to check 3 handed when I miss. [/ QUOTE ] Yeah, this is a good point. I've been doing the latter a lot more, but I just looked at this hand, saw 3 opponents, and immediately assumed check-fold is the best play. After reading some thoughts and re-analyzing, I like betting here. |
#15
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Re: I just give up on AT
grunching
I like a flop bet here, however, with 2 players that are 50% VPIP, it's tough to know where you stand at the turn and the river, because you'll likely be called by 1 if not both of them. I struggle with this alot. |
#16
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Re: I just give up on AT
[ QUOTE ]
Last night I was looking at a pro friend of mine's PT stats. He plays mostly 25/50, plays 75/150 whenever anybody sits down, and totally crushes 15/30 short-handed games. So, I decided to check out his position stats. He's folding ATo 80% of the time UTG in 6-handed games. He's also folding KQo 100% of the time. [/ QUOTE ] I'd check again. That's pretty clearly not optimal. |
#17
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Re: I just give up on AT
I bet this flop (and fold to a c/r)I think your hand may be good here a lot.I check the turn UI and take the free card. If bet into on the turn , I fold.
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#18
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Re: I just give up on AT
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] Last night I was looking at a pro friend of mine's PT stats. He plays mostly 25/50, plays 75/150 whenever anybody sits down, and totally crushes 15/30 short-handed games. So, I decided to check out his position stats. He's folding ATo 80% of the time UTG in 6-handed games. He's also folding KQo 100% of the time. [/ QUOTE ] I'd check again. That's pretty clearly not optimal. [/ QUOTE ] What can I tell you? The guy played 30K hands last month and made $16,810.95. If you think you know better what's optimal in 75/150, you should get in a game with him. He does raise 66 and 55 UTG 6-handed, which I suppose is just a factor of how tight the games are. To be fair, he only played 1,900 hands of 6-handed, as compared to 6,500 3-handed and 12,000 heads-up, so maybe he's terrible at 6-max and makes up for it in other places. |
#19
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Re: I just give up on AT
[ QUOTE ]
So, I decided to check out his position stats. He's folding ATo 80% of the time UTG in 6-handed games. He's also folding KQo 100% of the time. [/ QUOTE ] When you guys figure out that this stuff barely matters and has virtually nothing to do with being a good player or winning you will be much better off. |
#20
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Re: I just give up on AT
Turn fold is clear cut.
Flop check is marginal but my preference. The most important issue here is the likelihood that Button will give me the free card when I'm ahead of him. There is a lot of EV in the free card improve-or-fold approach if you can get the free card. Much more fun than risking money and maybe even getting checkraised out of seeing the turn. However if Button is going to bet without looking then I might as well bet myself. I'm OK with checkfolding when Button has a hand but I don't want to accept zero EV for this flop by never seeing the turn. BTW one poster commented favorably on the jack due to it's lowness. That's wrong because it's popular with the preflop call crowd and it leaves room for overcards. Kxx > Qxx > Jxx for fold equity. |
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