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#1
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Re: AKs huge pot
I would consider folding when it is two to you on the flop. Its a monster pot but getting 12.5-1 with no draws and your aces are probably worth one outs and kings maybe 2. Even with the monster pot, hitting a pair is unlikely to win it for you and you do not have anything else besides the low end of a gut shot. I say fold the flop.
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#2
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Re: AKs huge pot
No way I'm folding the flop for 2 SBs. Way too many times MP1 has QQ, JJ, maybe even TT or overcards.
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#3
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Re: AKs huge pot
Getting 13.75:1 on the flop I call.
You have 5 outs at the very least (3 discounted OC + 2 discounted gutshot). Discounting the gutshot 2 full outs may even be overboard. I play the whole hand the same. With 5 outs, you have plenty of overlay to call here. You only need 8:1 to call with 5 outs. |
#4
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Re: AKs huge pot
The problem is that you have the low end of a 4 card straight on the board. Any ace splits and any six beats you. I think maybe 1 out for the gutshot and probably 2 for the overs gives 3 outs. I just dont think there are enough times when you will come out ahead with 5 opponents. You have to assume you are behind MP1, which means that you have to outdraw him and the other 4 players. Too many times you are going to hit a draw and still lose with this hand. I just dont think this is a good situation to be putting any more money into the pot. You also know that if you call the flop you are almost guaranteed to call the turn based on the size of the pot. Just does not seem like you will come out ahead often enough.
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#5
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Re: AKs huge pot
If we hit our three we can re-evaluate then. This pot is huge and even if we are raised if a three hits on the turn, not calling it down will kill a kitten.
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#6
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Re: AKs huge pot
i think if you go conservative, you at least have 4 discounted outs which still gives you odds to call. Thats a huge pot and while you don't want to be too optomistic, you also can't get MUBS.
I think the most completely conservative estimate of the EV of this call still puts it AT WORST as 0 EV, so that it wouldn't matter whether you fold or call here in the long run. However, I do feel this is a positive EV call. Giving your draw 4 outs is discounting the hell out of it and you're still getting over 11:1. But then again...I'm no expert... |
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