General Philosophy

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This post is linked at the bottom of the Micro-limits FAQ as "Homer's confidence interval calculations for winrates":

How many hands do I need to play...

What is meant by "converge" is that the more hands you play, the more narrow your confidence interval becomes. However, you can still establish reasonable lower and upper bounds with fewer hands. The difference is that you will see a wider range of possible winrates over fewer hands. e.g. 1.5BB-2.6BB for our friend here if we use a 99.9% confdence. If I change his 20k hands played to 100k hands, his interval is much tighter: 1.87BB-2.32BB.


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I went through that link and got WAY different numbers for upper and lower bounds. I copy and pasted the formulas that Bison posted a bit into the thread and used a SD/100 of 15BB ,CI of 95, and still got 0 and 4 for bounds.