Moses (Custer) hand #2: Folding TPTK

[Custer]

Probably the toughest early stages post flop decision I had all session. Thank you so much for posting it. Did I think he had TT or 99? No. It's tough to make a set, so my general rule in holdem is that if the only hand I am beat by is an extremely unlikely set, they get paid. I thought AT and A9 much more likely. AQ also possible, as is T9 and AJ. Who said KK? Go back and reread the hand. What odds am I getting? 845-2035,about 1.5 to 1, somewhat less when I have the best hand and my opponent folds. So the guy raised a 100 bet to 275. He didn't raise it to 200, he didn't raise it to 300. He raised it as much as possible without making it look like a big raise and not making it obvious (he could have made it 295). This with an A on the board, the PF raiser still to act behind him and the bb making a 2/3 pot bet. Would you take +150 that he had AQ and AJ vs. AT, A9, T9, TT, and 99? At the time, I decided not to. Looking at the decision again with lots of time (right now), I am even more confident that the fold was correct.

Thanks again for all the replies.

moses

[Custer]

I missed another point. The 845 chips I will lose are worth more per chip than the 1245 I might win. This skews the odds. How much more are those chips worth? Anyone who can correctly answer that question would be an AWESOME player. Becuase I don't think anyone has been able to prove it mathematically. ie no one knows for sure.

moses