Incorrect application of the Spicy F theorum?

[sfer]

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I think I would like it if the board didn't pair the top card. I have a hard time understanding what is calling a river CR here that our hero beats.

- Jim

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The river raise looks desperate and I would expect any pair to call near 100% of the time.

[BigEndian]

That definitely turned out to be the case this time. Maybe I'm out of touch with short-handed play though I play a lot as tables cycle at 10-20+. And maybe I'm folding too much short-handed myself.

- Jim

[Enon]

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I think I would like it if the board didn't pair the top card. I have a hard time understanding what is calling a river CR here that our hero beats.

- Jim

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The river raise looks desperate and I would expect any pair to call near 100% of the time.

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And I agree with this 110% [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

[CardSharpCook]

I think the difference btwn this and SpicyF's example is the flush draw vs. the str8 draw. The str8 draw was an unlikely hit, but he could have easily had JT for 2 pair. Such a hand could not 3bet a river, while AT/AJ/J9/T9/etc are all still betting the river. In this example, Enon, you have a flush draw which might explain his betting pattern and he would have to call a turn raise, but might not bet the river with a busted flush. On the other hand, he is much more likely to 3bet the turn with a Q than he would be to 3bet the river with a Q. Hmm, I think this is a good application of the theory, though it is different than the orignal example. The fold to a 3bet on the river is dangerous. Actually, I have a problem with what hands he bets a river here with? Why in the world would he bet a 7 on this river? What hands could he be hoping you'd call with? Does he bet JJ-88 here? Again, I think it is way too risky to bet these hands because I don't see a lot of 2nd best hands calling.

On SpicyF's board, there were a good number of hands that both bet the river and call a raise that are either best or second best. On this board, there are very few 2nd best hands that both bet and call a raise on the river. However, flushes and Qs all bet and most just call a raise, though some flushes and most boats 3bet.

I don't like this play because of the lack of 2nd best hands that would play it this way. I am surprised that he would bet and call 76 here.

[LarsVegas]

Hi CSC,

I think the river bet with a 7 is OK. But the payoff is very thin, but okay I suppose if you only do it about half the time in the long run. If you want to value bet thin on the river (which I think you should want), you can't be seen bet-folding to much at limits where opponents are aware, and you are likely to face the same opponents again some.

I disagree that the fold to a river 3bet here is dangerous. You don't see an opponent betting and calling with 7-6, but you do see someone bet-3betting a worse hand than kings & queens here? Okay it's 30-60, but we are probably not playing Ted Forrest or Phil Ivey here.

I would like to have anyone put in three big bets on the river against me as a stone cold bluff in the long run, anyway. If he does it, he can have it.

lars