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#1
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This is kind of a probability question but it relates to NFL betting so I'll post it here:
My friend is thinking of doing a 10 team, 21 point teaser for the NFL. He has to risk $170 to win $100. He has to go 10/10 to win, but he gets 21 points for each game. What is the EV for this and how would one calculate it? |
#2
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Using data from NFL games from 93 to 04, I get 94.837% of the games that a team managed to cover the spread +21 points. I'm not sure how ties effect this bet, but I will ignore them for now.
Anyway, the probability of winning this is simply .94837^10 or about 58.85%. That's not enough to make it profitable (needs ~63%) but it's not impossible that if your friend picks the correct 10 sides that it could be +EV. Frankly I'm a little surprised because when I read this I thought it would be a much bigger "suckers" bet. Edit: What are the rules on ties? This could have a pretty significant effect, and if "ties lose" is the case, the win pct drops to 55.3%. |
#3
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My guess is that ties lose. The OP said you had to win them all. Of course, they could just mean that you can't lose even one.
craig |
#4
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Doug, Where do you get those stats, i'm kind of new to sports betting. Thanks.
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#5
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Can you include totals too, or just sides?
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#6
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Anyone know what site takes this bet? If it is not appropriate to say feel free to pm me.
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#7
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5Dimes takes these things. They call them Monster Teasers and ties lose.
Tech...you can use totals in them too,even team totals. I was looking at them the week Baltimore played Pittsburgh and the over for the Ravens for a 14 pt teaser was 4 [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] |
#8
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5dimes does take this kind of bet but not at those odds.
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#9
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I'd also like to know what site your using for this.
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#10
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[ QUOTE ]
5Dimes takes these things. They call them Monster Teasers and ties lose. Tech...you can use totals in them too,even team totals. I was looking at them the week Baltimore played Pittsburgh and the over for the Ravens for a 14 pt teaser was 4 [/ QUOTE ] Yeah but there is no way they can do it at those odds, at least I don't think. I haven't done the math on this, but here is my gut feeling. If I have to make 10 selections on sides teasing 21 points each at -170, I'm not sure that is +EV. If I can include sides and totals, I'm pretty sure it would be +EV. If I can include sides, totals, and team totals, the place will be broke in a month. [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img] |
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