KK vs a TAG

[Entity]

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Don't check the turn here.

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jd - Do you suggest bet/fold or bet/call on the turn? Why?

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I woudl bet/call here. There is no reason to think villain has a Jack (he would have called the 3-bet on the flop and raised a turn bet by hero). More likely a flush draw trying to get a cheap turn in position/medium PP (10's?) charging overcards. I would put villain on AK [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] if hero did'nt have the K [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] in his hands. AQ [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] if villain didn't fold to the river bet. As it stands, it seems like villain 3 bet pre-flop with AT [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (not quite the TAG he is made out to be...) or maybe pocket 8's/9's/10's.

If villain calls the 3 bet on flop and then raises me on turn I may consider folding this, but would prolly still see showdown (c/c) - and I expect to see AQ [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] or AJ - so I'm winning half of these.

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I really think putting in 3BB between the turn and river is too much unless you have a retardedly crazy read on villain. You capped preflop, 3-bet the flop, and you think he's raising ATc or AQc when you lead the turn?

Rob

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I think he is raising AQc or AJ on the turn. Not ATc (that slows down FOR SURE).

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If you think he's only raising JJ, AJ, AA, QQ and AQc on that turn then you should bet-fold. You're ahead of one but subject to losing to it 28% of the time, and you only win against the others about 4.3% of the time. So you're losing (3BB - .684BB for what you make up in implieds+potequity) = 1+1+6+3=11 ways, and winning 2BB 1 way, which is about a loss of 1.95BB by putting in 3 bets between the turn and the river.

I really think everyone is being so "bet the turn" because the turn got checked through. If he checks the turn with a weirdly played 88-TT intending to call a river bet we gain far more than we lose. There are a few 2 outers out there, 1 13 outer, and 1 11 outer.

Rob

[ReadyEddie]

Awesome BWebb....

yeah i know, i was afraid the turn and river might skew the responses.

[jackdaniels]

hmmmm...

I guess my response may have been skewed by seeing the check-check on the turn. I guess betting this turn doesn't offer as much value against villains range as I originally thought. Although I must say that I HATE checking the turn to anyone who closes the action on the flop with 2 to a flush on board - unless I have a read that says this player will not take a free card and I can c/r them.

Thanks for the responses guys, I think I learned something here.

[jskills]

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What flush draw could he have had? Would a tight aggressive player really three bet preflop with A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] T [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]? I'm pretty convinced he was on TT and hoping you were on AK/AQ on the flop. Either that or he overplayed AK.

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You make good points. I missed the preflop 3-bet when I responded, but it's not completely crazy for someone to 3-bet with ATs - particularly when they're on the button. It's odd to see a flop cap here - since the villan never took another step forward the rest of the hand. Why cap with TT and not bet the turn - afraid of the Q?

[Jake (The Snake)]

How about c/c the river? I'm pretty lenient about value betting rivers but when we're trying to value bet to exactly one combo (AcQc), and maybe an underpair, I'm not sure if there's more value to trying to induce a bluff.

Also, I think villain has a monster a not insignificant % of the time and is hoping to raise the river, where we get stuck either putting in 2 bets with the worse hand or bet/folding and possibily giving up the best hand to a bluff.

AcQc looks pretty likely I guess, but I think it would bet the turn often.

What do you put villian on the flop?

The hands that a 'textbook tag' 3 bets preflop with a J are JJ and maybe AJs. I can see villian with ATs/AQs also and is pumping his draw, which leads me to my next point.

I lead the turn. As AQ just made TPTK. The flush draw is still there, AK has a few additional outs and I feel the need to charge those possibilities. If raised, then I might moan a bit, and call down from there.