Incorrect application of the Spicy F theorum?

[dankhank]

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I think you are missing one thing... Hero is going to fold the river if villian 3 bets him. I am almost certain of this and it's why I think the play has merit here.

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thats a key factor to my analysis but yes i forgot about it when writing the 'you put in four bets when behind' parts.

so if villain has Q and enon raises the turn he loses 3-4 bets, if he raises the river he loses three. maybe i did overcomplicate it...