Easy Way to Estimate Odds from Outs

[InsaniT]

To convert percentages to odds, take the percentage to make your hand (for flush draw, ~18% on the next card using the "ghetto" method) and subtract that from 100% (100-18=82). Your odds to make it on the next card are 82:18, or about 4:1. That's not far off from the true number, 4.11:1.

InsaniT

MY brain seems to understand the % thing much better than trying to figure the odds. I think I am better off quickly finding the %, and converting to odds. To assure I'm doing it correctly, check this out.

I have 2 outs going to the river. That's 5%. Does this give me 19 to 1?

Ok, now that this debate is heating, let me introduce a enw subject along the same lines. I am having difficulty understanding the concept behind effective outs. Effective outs are outs that will give you the best hand when u hit.

EXAMPLE.

HERO- QJd
VILLIAN- TsTc

FLOP- 7d8d9

Obviously in this situation a J is not an out, but the diamonds and q's are outs. This is easy to say well i only have 12 outs since my other 3 J are no good, but when we are not able to see the cards and we have put our VILLIAN on a PP (that is not a set and NOT QQ,KK, or AA) then we would be inclined to count the three remaining J as outs also.

My question, how do you figure the odds on effective outs. Someone tried explaining it but I still didnt understand.

I agree. This was the easiest method in the whole thread.

[Nomad84]

I don't like using percentages. They aren't as practical as X:1 format to me. For the poster that mentioned percentages being better for equity, I prefer to think that if my odds are better than 2:1 and I have at least 2 people coming along with me, I have an equity edge. If my odds are better than 3:1 and there are more than 3 people, I have an edge. I can see how percentages would be easier for this for some people, but not me. It also makes it much easier when evaluating calls. If my drawing odds are 4:1 against, I just need to make sure there are at least 4 bets in the pot to justify a call. Much easier (IMO) than trying to figure out if my call will be equal to more or less than 20% of the total pot if I call.

For any number of outs from about 5 to 9, take 13 minus the number of outs. It's an approximation that works fairly well. Not a lot better than just memorizing the odds, but it helped me when I was new, so maybe it will help others too.

Outs.....Approx. Odds......Precise Odds (River)
5................8:1...............8.2:1
6................7:1...............6.7:1
7................6:1...............5.6:1
8................5:1...............4.8:1
9................4:1...............4.1:1

I've found that most people think in terms of the ratio - 5:1 etc. But there are a few people, myself included, who, for whatever reason, think in terms of percentages.

I can't "get" the ratio bit for the life of me, but I totally understand, say, 33 percent to hit my outs. And, it's the way I started as a beginner, so it has nothing to do with beginning player versus experienced player.

P.S. because my brain doesn't process the ratio, when I have used it I found myself just converting it to percentages anyway, so it ends up being a waste of time, just the same way that for many of you percentages are a waste of time because you would convert it back to a ratio. Six one way, half a dozen the other.

A slightly more accurate way to get the percentage on the next card is to multiply by 2 and then add 1. Thus, 10 outs gives you:

10 x 2 = 20 plus 1 = 21 percent. (Actual percentage is 21.3 percent.)

[ QUOTE ]
Ok, now that this debate is heating, let me introduce a enw subject along the same lines. I am having difficulty understanding the concept behind effective outs. Effective outs are outs that will give you the best hand when u hit.

EXAMPLE.

HERO- QJd
VILLIAN- TsTc

FLOP- 7d8d9

Obviously in this situation a J is not an out, but the diamonds and q's are outs. This is easy to say well i only have 12 outs since my other 3 J are no good, but when we are not able to see the cards and we have put our VILLIAN on a PP (that is not a set and NOT QQ,KK, or AA) then we would be inclined to count the three remaining J as outs also.

My question, how do you figure the odds on effective outs. Someone tried explaining it but I still didnt understand.

[/ QUOTE ]

You discount your three jacks if you dont think they're a cinch. Instead of calling them three full outs, you say they're worth about half, or 1.5. The number you come up with isnt as important as the logic you use to estimate it. IE how did this guy play the hand that makes me think a pair of Jacks wont win?