#1
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10/20 JJ
Villain is 37/22/2.38 over a large sample.
I called the flop planning to slam a good turn card. Party Poker 10/20 Hold'em (9 max, 8 handed) pokerhand.org hand converter Preflop: I am MP2 with J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. UTG calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP1 raises</font>, <font color="#CC3333">I 3-bet</font>, <font color="#666666">4 folds</font>, UTG calls, MP1 calls. Flop: (10.50 SB) 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font> UTG checks, MP1 checks, <font color="#CC3333">I bet</font>, UTG folds, <font color="#CC3333">MP1 raises</font>, I call. Turn: (7.25 BB) Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font> <font color="#CC3333">MP1 bets</font>, I call. River: (9.25 BB) 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font> <font color="#CC3333">MP1 bets</font>, I call. Final Pot: 11.25 BB |
#2
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Re: 10/20 JJ
I can see that this guy is pretty agro, and I guess that's your concern. You've got to believe you're losing this 60-75% of the time, but I agree that you are winning enough to make this a call down.
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#3
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Re: 10/20 JJ
I don't like it. On the turn, you're getting 9.25:2 on your calldown. ~1/6 of hands have the flush already, and this is not taking into account the two pair hands that have you beat.
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#4
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Re: 10/20 JJ
PREFLOP: Standard.
FLOP: I like your plan, your hand will be much stronger if a blank hits the turn, waiting til the turn blanks off to get aggressive is the right play IMO on this board with your hand. TURN: I understand why you called down, this guy's stats are pretty aggressive. Its hard for me to say if calling down is right or not. Judging by the villain stats, I do think the villain is capable of checkraising this flop without a club, but I also think he will checkraise this flop every time he does have a club no matter what that club is, thats what maniacs usually do. To be honest with you, I dont know what the right move is here, I am really not happy with folding this turn or calling down. I would probably fold the turn since his postflop aggression factor is not that high for a typical lag IMO. |
#5
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Re: 10/20 JJ
It seems that villian is aggro enough that you will be able to either get 3bets in on the flop and then raise the turn anyway. I raise the flop almost all the time.
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#6
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Re: 10/20 JJ
I think we can fold the turn. 4.5:1 to call down when we're probably drawing dead isn't very good (I don't think he'll bet the turn with a lot of the hands we beat).
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#7
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Re: 10/20 JJ
Player may be aggressive, but is he to the point of being a donkey? Aggressor's perspective of your hand when betting the turn into a four club board would most certainly include some kind of club as well. Looks like he wants you to call. He won't check, because on a four club board checking does nothing in this case. If you have J club, for instance, you will check right back. If you have a set, checking gives you a free card. Either way, it looks like he has AT LEAST a club, if not one that is paint. Fold on turn.
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#8
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Re: 10/20 JJ
Based on only his numbers I think you can call down. But I think this is a good example of how numbers don't paint an accurate enough picture. Is this an opponent who will bet without a club on the turn AND the river?
And then me may just have a T (or worse) and figure you haven't hit yet because you haven't raised and so he autobets. - Jim |
#9
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Re: 10/20 JJ
To quote what I told you last night
"if he's bad enough that you have to call down, call down". |
#10
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Re: 10/20 JJ
I'm pretty sure this is a losing calldown even if our opponent has not seen his cards.
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