Are Winrates Normally Distributed?

[Chobohoya]

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i can't speak on math, but i know that people tend to play a lot when they're down and tend to leave when they're up

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Astro, that shouldn't matter since even if Josh leaves, his next session gets grouped in the stats (if I understand correctly). This would only matter if Josh tilts.

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It should matter. If you quit early to lock up a win, and "play through your downswings," then you're going to have a smaller winrate, and the center of your distribution will be more to the left than it could be.