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#11
12-07-2005, 12:27 PM
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Re: Top set on a monotone flop.
[ QUOTE ]
I thought that you should only bet when you're going to win the majority of the time when you're called. I don't see how I'm violating this here. If you bet and you're beat he's always going to (at least) call you. If you're ahead he will seldom call you. How do you gain here by betting. [/ QUOTE ] do you have HPFAP? check out p. 106 which talks about betting on the river when your opponent will call more often than he'll bet himself and you're calling anyway. and I quote the sklansky: "it may appear as though the 55 percent rule has been violated, but that rule applies only when you are second to act and your opponent has already checked" (his emphasis) 
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#12
12-07-2005, 12:37 PM
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Re: Top set on a monotone flop.
OK, I stand corrected. However, without a read you don't know if he will call more often than he will bet himself. This play would be best against a timid player. Against an unknown then you have to factor in the possibility that he may bet more than he would call here. In this type of game you're really guessing. So the correct play would be the one that would work the best against the average player. I suppose you could make the case that the average player in this game would be the type to call with more hands then he bets but I don't know.
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#13
12-07-2005, 12:37 PM
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Re: Top set on a monotone flop.
Im goign to argue for C/C here.
JBA - Why do you think villan will call here without a winning hand? What advantage do we have for bet folding? Im ok with either, but after consideration C/C seems superioir to whom looks like an aggresive oponent. Cheers mate.
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#14
12-07-2005, 12:37 PM
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Re: Top set on a monotone flop.
i agree with either bet-fold or check-call; NOT bet-call
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#15
12-07-2005, 12:57 PM
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Re: Top set on a monotone flop.
[ QUOTE ]
JBA - Why do you think villan will call here without a winning hand? What advantage do we have for bet folding? [/ QUOTE ] well I haven't actually said that I wanted to bet/fold yet. I think this is very close between bet/fold and check/call -- bet/call is bad. the fact that he posted makes his range pretty big here and that makes it tough. there a lot of hands he could have like 54 J4 J5 55 44 KJ QJ AJ that we beat and will call our bet. his flop action while possibly a lone big diamond could easily be a decent made hand. how many hands to do you think he has that will just call? well I mentioned 54 J4 J5 55 44 KJ QJ, there are a lot of combos there. Now, how many diamond hands will check behind if we check? I think there aren't that many. i think he's calling with a lot more hands than he's betting. so, bet/fold.
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#16
12-07-2005, 01:12 PM
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Re: Top set on a monotone flop.
This is, i want a showdown for information on this guy in a way.
As i say B/F or C/c not a mix of both. However Bet/Fold - I think hes going to bet as a bluff and potentially with 2pair etc as he assumes we have no diamond. So i go with C/C in the end, Without a read i guess theres no CORRECT answer its just preference. Gaining info and not being bluffed out of a pot is prefered over making 1BB value bet(or losing it if a weaker diamond calls us). They each have their wins and loses so hard to say.
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