400 66 UTG hand---corrected b/c i am a moron

[Dave Mac]

i understand what you are saying, however, even tho i lost doesn't it look like i would have gotten paid off?
dave

[TheWorstPlayer]

Well, you don't know on the flop that the guy is going to bet twice the pot on the turn when you hit your draw. And you also don't know what he has. If he has a set, your equity is not that high and if it is 77 and you hit a 6 you're going to end up calling another decent sized bet and losing. And he may have the nuts in which case you're in a whole world of hurt. And he may have an overpair in which case he won't put in another penny if you hit any of your 10 outs. And he may have 69 in which case you will pay through the nose if you hit an 8.

I just think that you have a bad reverse implied odds situation and no good implied odds situation. And you're not getting pot odds to call even if all 10 outs are good. So you're counting on implied odds, which I don't think are there, especially when you factor in the reverse implied odds when you improve but still lose.

However. Once you make the flop call, there is no play except to push the turn. The only way that you are getting correct odds to draw on the flop is if you think that he cannot fold on the turn even when your obvious draw hits. This is going to most likely be the case when he has a set and cannot fold it because he puts you on an overpair. When he overbets the turn, this looks like it is the exact situation. I would put him on a set a large % of the time here. A stupidly played set, of course, but a set nonetheless. And it sure doesn't look like he is going to fold it. And you want to protect since he has a very live draw on the turn with a set. So I think you definitely should've pushed. Can't worry about 69 obviously and you want value/protection. Push. As I said before, they always call the push when they overbet.

[soah]

Your analysis is not considering the fact that you may win the pot without improving.

[TheWorstPlayer]

My written analysis is not including that. But my play does account for that fact. My written analysis also does not account for the fact that he may get you to lay down on the turn when he fires a second barrel with 69. Obviously I can't lay out everything, I was just trying to touch on the most important and less obvious points. I definitely agree with you that sometimes it goes checkcheckcheckcheck and you win. But I don't think that scenario drastically affects the EV of the situation.

[Dave Mac]

that all makes complete sense, thank you.