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#1
12-06-2005, 05:31 AM
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Re: Tough spot 5/10 JJ
[ QUOTE ]
AA - 6 KK - 3 QQ - 6 JJ - 1 TT - 3 99 - 1 AK - 12 AQ - 16 discounted to 8 since most don't 3-bet and would have a hard time calling the flop Ahead of 8 behind 31. 31:8 ~= 4:1. So, check/fold, in fact, on the turn. [/ QUOTE ] I'm not sure we should discount AQ that much, but in any case TT is 6 combos we're beating on the turn instead of 3 we're losing to. Which changes the ratio to 28:14, at that point. 
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#2
12-06-2005, 05:36 AM
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Re: Tough spot 5/10 JJ
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] AA - 6 KK - 3 QQ - 6 JJ - 1 TT - 3 99 - 1 AK - 12 AQ - 16 discounted to 8 since most don't 3-bet and would have a hard time calling the flop Ahead of 8 behind 31. 31:8 ~= 4:1. So, check/fold, in fact, on the turn. [/ QUOTE ] I'm not sure we should discount AQ that much, but in any case TT is 6 combos we're beating on the turn instead of 3 we're losing to. Which changes the ratio to 28:14, at that point. [/ QUOTE ] Again, in that case we're only getting 10.5:2 to call down and AQ/TT have to be discounted if the turn goes check/bet.
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#3
12-06-2005, 05:39 AM
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Re: Tough spot 5/10 JJ
[ QUOTE ]
Again, in that case we're only getting 10.5:2 to call down and AQ/TT have to be discounted if the turn goes check/bet. [/ QUOTE ] For some reason, I only had the first three responses (including my erroneous initial one) in front of me.
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#4
12-06-2005, 05:40 AM
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Re: Tough spot 5/10 JJ
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] Again, in that case we're only getting 10.5:2 to call down and AQ/TT have to be discounted if the turn goes check/bet. [/ QUOTE ] For some reason, I only had the first three responses (including my erroneous initial one) in front of me. [/ QUOTE ] Ok, cool. Thoughts?
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#5
12-06-2005, 05:56 AM
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Re: Tough spot 5/10 JJ
[ QUOTE ]
Thoughts? [/ QUOTE ] Uh, I don't know. I think it's close. I've been seeing a fair amount of 3-betting with AQ lately. I don't know how often that hand is getting folded instead, though. I know it's a crappy flop for AQ, but I can imagine someone peeling with it on the flop. But, yeah, I think we need to discount it. I mean, it shouldn't be easy for Villain to peel with AQ on that flop, versus a preflop capper. How often will a 5/10 unknown bluff AQ if checked to on the turn? I'm not sure. Certainly not always. Hero has represented a big hand. I'd rather not give a 6-outer a free look at the river and would probably bet-fold. (And I do think if Villain holds AQ and peeled on the flop with it, he'll most likely fold it now.) But I'm not at all sure bet-folding is best. We are probably behind, and the chances of this do go up if we check and Villain bets. So I think you make a good case for a turn check-fold.
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