The free showdown

This comes out of some exchanges about the concept with Spicymoose in a different thread. Now that I'm at home with access to books, maybe I can better explain.

Page 175 in SSH talks about the cheap showdown. In the SSH case you're continuing to bet the turn with a made, but less than top pair hand, with the intention of checking behind on the river for a free showdown. Combine this idea with the idea of waiting until the turn (SSH, p 161) to protect your hand and you get a play I make in various situations where I raise the turn for a free showdown. You have to have position of course.

An example:
You have 9 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]T [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] in the button. CO limps, you limp, SB raises, BB calls. All call. SB is a 45/20/1.5, a fairly typical semi-LAG that auto-bets with the lead, but will back off when confronted with aggression.

(8SB)Flop comes K [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]T [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]3 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
SB bets, BB folds, CO folds, Hero calls

What I've been doing here on this type of villian is calling. If I raise, he's calling every time, so if he's on a draw, I can only charge him 1SB. The villian could easily be auto-betting missed hands like AQ, AJ, A9s or lower pairs like 99/88.

The turn comes 4 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
Villian bets, Hero raises.

This is my ideal card as it gives me lots of outs, but any non-paint, non [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] would do as well since I have 5 2-pair/trip outs. Villian auto-bets again since it's HU and he has the lead.

I raise for these main reasons.
1) I may have the best hand and now that we're at the turn I can charge him the most if he is drawing to overcards and a gutshot. He's only got 1 card to go for 1BB, where a flop raise would only charge him 1SB with 2 cards to come.
2) He might fold incorrectly thinking I've hit my King or 2-pair and his only hope is the gutshot and/or ace. Given his real outs, he'd be correct to call, so I don't mind him folding.
3) If I'm behind, this move doesn't cost me an entire extra BB because some portion of the time I'm going to suck out anyway.

River is a 7 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
Villian checks, hero checks.

A total blank. If I'm behind, I'm still behind. Unlike the turn where he'd call my raise with both made and drawing hands, on the river he'll most likely only call a bet if I'm beat. I'll check behind and take the showdown for free. If the river had made me 2-pair or a flush for me, I'd bet of course.

So why do I think this free showdown play is +EV?

1) I'd like to see the showdown and I need to pay 2BB to do so. If I raise the turn, I spend my 2BB there and check behind on the river, rather than calling both turn and river.
2) I charge him when he's drawing.
3) He might fold the turn incorrectly.
4) If I hit my hand on the river, now when I bet any hands that call me will almost certainly be losers.
5) If the river makes the villian a huge hand (any A/Q/J/T is bad for me), he'll often go for a check/raise and get foiled because I check behind. While this isn't a big deal, it really screws with some player's heads. After I pull this on someone and hit a cheap showdown, I try to make sure my next turn raise is a clear value raise to which the villian will sometimes 3-bet just to avoid getting burned again.
6) While the villian's turn bet is possibly a continuation bet, if he bets the river as well it's likely a value bet. Even at 10/20, people don't try to value bet ace high very often and a 1.5 aggression doesn't fire that 3rd bullet as a bluff at the river often either.

By raising the turn, I win/lose 2BB if I don't improve on the river (the same as calling the turn and river). If I hit my hand on the river, I win an extra bet some of the time.

Negatives:
1) Getting 3-bet on the turn sucks as you have to call due to the odds.
2) A river donk bet sucks, you're almost certainly beaten (unless you hit your hand). It puts you in a tough spot. Can this opponent really donk-bluff after you raise the turn? If you really think you're beat, you can fold and it still just cost you 2BB, but that's a hard fold to make.
3) You can only do this with opponents that will back down, which requires some level of read.

This play is distinct from the free card play. When I'm on a strict draw, I raise the flop and try for a free card. I use the free showdown play when I've got a real hand that could be best and at least 4-5 outs to improve if it's not best. If the board is ugly such that making my hand is likely to make someone else a better hand (puts 4 to a straight), then I don't try this play.

I hope that all makes sense. I'm certainly not advocating it as a standard, but I've found it's worked pretty well for me. My aggression stats are 3.0/4.0/1.8, so the turn is often the point where I make my moves, rather than the flop. It also puts some randomness in my game, raising the flop sometimes, raising the turn, some with made hands, some drawing, some in between.

Chris

[Spicymoose]

I think this play is fine here.

I don't think it is fine in the other thread [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]. I think the situation is way different.

Thanks for your analysis, I need to reread later, as I am going to sleep now.

[Kakafoni]

I agree, this play is pretty powerful. Even with lesser holdings than middle pair + flush draw it's still +EV i think, for instance with middle pair. Some differences though, u can't really call if reraised [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img]

[ QUOTE ]
I agree, this play is pretty powerful. Even with lesser holdings than middle pair + flush draw it's still +EV i think, for instance with middle pair. Some differences though, u can't really call if reraised [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

I can call a 3-bet on the turn most of the time if you consider your 5 outs to 2-pair/trips clean. By that point you're usually getting around 9:1 on your call. You end up paying 3BB and not seeing showdown though if you don't improve and that is the single biggest drawback to this play.

You need to know the opponent can be bullied into passive play. I've found with .8 to about 1.5 aggression villians the play works well, but that's ok as that's a very common range for semi-fish. More aggression they'll 3-bet too often, with less than .8, their turn bet already means top pair and you might well fold the turn since you lack the odds (the 3-bet call I mentioned before only has odds due to the pot size you've made with your turn raise).