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Old 12-05-2005, 04:59 PM
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Default Re: Aces big pot.

(grunching)

First off, glad to see you capped it preflop.

I'd pop in a 3-bet on the flop, call a cap, and probably raise on the turn if bet into. The guy who woke up limped, called one raise, and then called two more preflop. I do NOT think you're up against KK here, as nice as that would be. MP1's limp-reraise could mean a lot of things at this level, but given that he initially limped after several other limpers he's either a good player sweetening the pot for a drawing hand, or a donk who likes to be uberagressive and thinks he's tricky (and at this level, which is more likely?).

Therefore, I think there's a good enough chance that your hand is best. Is it possible you're up against a wonky 2 pair or a set? Sure. But on the flop you have a bet, a raise, and a cold-call -- that gives you great odds to hit another A when you're not ahead already, so go ahead and pump this one up. Plus, most of the people at this level like to smooth call with a set and pop the turn (fear UTG+1 until the call on the turn), so I think that makes a set slightly less likely.

I'd pop the turn, too, if it's raised into me, because the pot is so big and there are still 3 other people in. Make them pay to hit their crap draws that they're in there with. Call down if you get 3-bet.

On the river, if I have the lead, I'm betting. If I don't, I'm calling down. While you will be beat here a lot you'll also see a lot of people showing down junk like 9-10 or A9, or a pocket pair lower than JJ. Play it aggressively; you have tons of equity in this pot.
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