KQo against Mr. Fancy pants

kidcolin · #1 12-05-2005, 06:46 AM

I'd bet call any pair, c/r a straight.

For those advocating the turn bet: why? Give him a range of hands and look at the board, and understand that if villian has a smaller pocket pair, a high percentage of the time (greater than 90%, I'd guess) he's going to showdown after he calls a flop bet.

scotty34 · #2 12-05-2005, 06:56 AM

[ QUOTE ]
I'd bet call any pair, c/r a straight.

For those advocating the turn bet: why? Give him a range of hands and look at the board, and understand that if villian has a smaller pocket pair, a high percentage of the time (greater than 90%, I'd guess) he's going to showdown after he calls a flop bet.

[/ QUOTE ]

Hero has 6 outs to the nuts, 2 outs to the near nuts, 6 somewhat tainted outs, some fold equity against Ax, and even a possibility of being ahead. A bet here seems alright to me.

kidcolin · #3 12-05-2005, 11:30 AM

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Hero has 6 outs to the nuts, 2 outs to the near nuts, 6 somewhat tainted outs, some fold equity against Ax, and even a possibility of being ahead. A bet here seems alright to me.

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I agree that a bet is OK. Is it better than a check?

POKhER · #4 12-05-2005, 11:32 AM

I think turn bet is debateable but not BAD. I like the way you played the hand.

Although on the hand 1, I'd be so tempted but probably wouldn't raise the river [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img] (As i hit him on a 9/PP more often than an ace). p.s. yes im posting this after seeing the Showdown Info. [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img]

admiralfluff · #5 12-05-2005, 07:01 AM

Why would we assume villain has a smaller pocket pair 90% of the time? I would guess we're aheads of villain a lot here, and we make up the difference with our minions of outs.

kidcolin · #6 12-05-2005, 11:26 AM

You misunderstood me (poor sentence structure on my part, it was late). I'm saying that when he has a small pocket pair, after he calls the flop bet he's going to showdown the vast majority of the time. I just through the 90% of the time out there, based on experience.

#7 12-05-2005, 12:43 PM

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if villian has a smaller pocket pair, a high percentage of the time (greater than 90%, I'd guess) he's going to showdown after he calls a flop bet.

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Do you think so? Villian is in position, so therefore may get to the river by just calling the flop bet. There is a good chance that Hero may check the turn, like he did in the first hand. Villian may have had a c/f plan on the turn.

I can't see how you get that 90% figure. This is so dependent on the situation and player. Only a player with poor post flop play will call down with a small pocket in this situation, or unless he thinks his opponent is overly aggressive. I can only assume that the majority of players with 30/20/2 stats play well post-flop, so therefore will not be calling down, unless they think oppenent has been overly aggressive.

If the villian was 45/10/1 the I could see an argument with 90%.

Trent.

kidcolin · #8 12-05-2005, 03:40 PM

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I can only assume that the majority of players with 30/20/2 stats play well post-flop

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Why? Stats don't say jack about post-flop play. We just saw him play aces like a total douche.

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I can't see how you get that 90% figure.

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Neither can I, as I mentioned. I guess a WTSD stat would be nice. I'm just basing it off of experience. But we can all agree he's never folding a J, T, 8, or 99. You might even be getting raised by one of those. He'll probably take another one off with 77. The only hands I see him tossing are weak Ax hands, maybe some really weak pairs like 55-22, though not always.

Someone mentioned if we check the turn, he'll likely auto-bet and we'll have to fold the river UI. I think we'll have to fold the river UI a lot, anyway. The turn bet might by us a free showdown, but if we're seeing the river I think we're losing UI the vast majority of the time.