Raise/fold river top 2 pair

[Pharity]

When he bets into me on the flop, im not worried about my hand. His bet could mean anything. He could have a worse ace (likely) or a pocket pair or something completely else. Many players love to bet out with these types of hands against a PFR hoping to fold a pocket pair below kings. If he really had a good hand he is more likely to checkraise. That he would have a king is not as likely though IMO.

When the board pairs up at the turn im WA/WB. Ive got two pairs and not much to worry about if he doesn't have a king. A raise here won't do me much good since im often folding lesser hands and have to fold to a 3-bet.

When i raise the river though, the chances he will pay me off with something like Ax goes up and i think its quite safe fold to the 3-bet. If he were a lunatic he would not have played those 57 last hands that timidly.

IMO im more than a 50% favorite on the river, allowing me to raise if i can safely fold to a reraise.