Hillary for president at 6:1

[MCS]

My analysis:

At Pinnacle, she's +109 to get the nomination, and the Democrats are -106 to win the election. (I'm going to be sort of thinking of these as +100 each because I'm doing the calculations in my head.)

Now we can't just multiply probabilities and conclude she's about 3-1 to win the presidency, because the two events are not independent. However, if 6-1 is a fair price, then it means Hillary is about 30% to win the presidency if nominated. (50% x 30% = 15% which is about 6-1.)

Then, because the Dems are -106 to win the presidency, this means non-Hillary Dems must have around a 70% chance of winning the presidency if nominated.

If you think other Democrats would actually be this much stronger than Hillary, it's a bad bet. If you don't think so, then it's a good bet.