2 Tough Bubble hands

[schwza]

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1 - i would push here. villain's range should be very wide. if it's not, folding is ok.

2 - i guess i'm the only one here, but i would fold. you're very unlikely to win this stt even if you double up. so play for 3rd and let the shorty take his chances on his bb.

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ugh - just looked at durron's sngpt numbers. i think the pfr is a wider range than that, but probably not by enough to make it a good push.

on the 2nd one, what is his "likely range"? i would be raising any 2 there, but we don't know villain is.

[Scuba Chuck]

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Hand 1) Fold, it's not close, against the range 22+,A2s+,A3o+,KTs+,KJo+,QJs it's -0.9%

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What's really interesting about the math results is if you change hero to BB (with BB's stack), it change this to only 0.3% positive EV.

It's amazing how little value AQ carries.

Just to further make my point, if we change the hand here from AQo to AKo, the EV from the original OP, goes from -0.9% to +0.2%. Interesting....

[pineapple888]

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Just to further make my point, if we change the hand here from AQo to AKo, the EV from the original OP, goes from -0.9% to +0.2%. Interesting....

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The more I read this forum, the more I think that appreciating just how big the difference is between AQ and AK (not just here, but in many other situations) is a critical point in a player's poker development.

If I remember right, T.J. Cloutier used to refer to AQ as a "weak ace", and there's another old-time pro who outright refused to ever play it in ring games. Extreme, but illustrative.

[durron597]

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Just to further make my point, if we change the hand here from AQo to AKo, the EV from the original OP, goes from -0.9% to +0.2%. Interesting....


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That's because there are so many king type hands in that range we have dominated.

You really don't want to go allin and have him call with K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] when you have AQ.

Of course, that range is pretty tight, you go the next click over with SnGPT and it becomes +0.2%.

[schwza]

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next click over with SnGPT and it becomes +0.2%.

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what's that mean?

[durron597]

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next click over with SnGPT and it becomes +0.2%.

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what's that mean?

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Maniac raise range. Actually, it was +0.4%, whoops (for 22+,A2+,K2+,Q2s+,Q6o+,J7s+,J9o+,T8s+,98s).

A more reasonable in between range like 22+,A2+,K5o+,K2s+,Q9o+,Q8s+,J9s+ is -0.1%.

[kamrann]

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Just to further make my point, if we change the hand here from AQo to AKo, the EV from the original OP, goes from -0.9% to +0.2%. Interesting....


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That's because there are so many king type hands in that range we have dominated.

You really don't want to go allin and have him call with K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] when you have AQ.

Of course, that range is pretty tight, you go the next click over with SnGPT and it becomes +0.2%.

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Someone help me out here, I'm amazed at the difference between AK and AQ in this situation. I thought the reason AQ was so bad was primarily that we're effectively calling allin as less than a 60% favourite, transferring loads of equity to the shortest stack. As such I figured AK wouldn't be much better.

What are the differences against this range originally suggested?

As opposed to being dominated by AK, we are dominating AQ.
We are about 70% against KTs, KJs, KJo, instead of about 60%, but we went the other way for QJs.
We aren't dead to QQ.

This seems almost insignificant given the likelihood of facing these few hands in a range of this size (the vast majority of the range, aces and pairs, is unaffected by AQ/AK).

Am I missing something obvious that makes AK a call rather than a certain fold?

[tigerite]

You think he's only pushing Kings down to KJo?

Heh.

[schwza]

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next click over with SnGPT and it becomes +0.2%.

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what's that mean?

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Maniac raise range. Actually, it was +0.4%, whoops (for 22+,A2+,K2+,Q2s+,Q6o+,J7s+,J9o+,T8s+,98s).

A more reasonable in between range like 22+,A2+,K5o+,K2s+,Q9o+,Q8s+,J9s+ is -0.1%.

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thanks. just out of curiousity, could you post the winning % for AQ against one of those ranges? no pokerstove at work [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

[citanul]

i fold hand 1 and push hand 2. for the same reasons people who say they would do those things say they would do those things. i don't believe this is all that close.