Free-Raising weak opponents.

[akishore]

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For starters, I think you're being too generous with counting 11.5 outs. You said it yourself, you lose a couple with the overs. I'd say you have 1.5 for each overcard, 1.5 for your backdoor flush, and maybe 2-3 for any 4 giving you a baby straight (it also might give someone else a straight).

That's at best, 7.5 outs, which may or may not change your line.

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This is really wrong. This is a heads-up pot for crying out loud, not four-way or five-way. How can you lose outs for BOTH your overs against one opponent as high as 50% of the time?? Then at the same time, you're losing outs for your straight so that you are up against 6x or Ax while at the same time being reverse dominated???

That means you're saying your opponent has exactly A-x or J-x where the x is a pair, but then card frequency says you only lose 1 out for the straight. If you lose more for the straight (i.e. he can have 6-x), then you gain more for your overcards.

The worst realistic case is being up against A5. Here, you lose 3 ace outs and 2 straight outs. That's 5 outs lost for a total of 6.5. But to assume you're this weak the majority of the time (what is needed to get an average estimated outs of 7.5, which is what you got), is extremely weak/tight thinking.

To the OP, I think your question is best answered with an elindauer triple. I think raise/call/fold should be something like {60, 40, 0} or maybe {75, 25, 0}.

Aseem

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This is really wrong. This is a heads-up pot for crying out loud, not four-way or five-way. How can you lose outs for BOTH your overs against one opponent as high as 50% of the time??

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Try rereading SSHE and then come back to me.

I have read SSHE twice and HEFAP...

What is your opponents hand range?

From what I would guess it would be :

2-x, 3-x, 4-,x 5-,x and perhaps even 6-x aswell as all the times that he is bluffing. He may also have A-x aswell and the possibility of any pair. Your A outs and J outs are only bad when he has a hand better than a pair and has exactly A-x or J-x that makes two pair.

When he bets out your overcards are good better than 50% of the time for sure. I would only discount 10% for the J, and perhaps 20% for the A (this includes when he makes the straight or has A-x that paired). I think you lose perhaps one full out maximum on the straight.

I would call this .9 lost for overcards and 1 for the straight. I think you can't really lose more than 2 outs for the legitimacy of your hand when you make it and he beats it as he just won't come out betting that often with a large hand like a set or a made straight or even 2 pair.

I think the maximum outs you can discount for this hand is four at the very worst. I was just stating the amount of outs we had when I said 11.5, I wasn't labelling the amount of clean outs.

What do others think?

Anyone else have any thoughts?