Two interesting PF decisions in the same hand with AK

[Roman]

I hate your reraise, dump the hand next time.

[Sam T.]

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I hate your reraise, dump the hand next time.

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Are you that sure someone is on AA or KK? The call does look make it seem like a possibility, but with all that money in the middle...

[schwza]

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I hate your reraise, dump the hand next time.

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Are you that sure someone is on AA or KK? The call does look make it seem like a possibility, but with all that money in the middle...

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i think the button almost never folds here. i think he has exactly AQ once in a while, and less than AQ rarely.

it's hard to know what the CO has. i know that i would not try to make this big squeeze play with a strong hand. i'm not getting cute with 67s very often - it's almost always AQ+ / 99+, and usually AK / JJ+. but i recognize it wouldn't be a totally crazy play for him to have 67s, so hero has some chance of having 33%+ equity.

Ks Ac 551161 40.21 783903 57.19 35690 2.60 0.415
Ad Qh 274700 20.04 1060364 77.36 35690 2.60 0.213
7h 6h 509203 37.15 857723 62.57 3828 0.28 0.372

this, i think, is very unlikely though.

more likely is that both have QQ-, which is good but not great.

Ks Ac 499339 36.43 867148 63.26 4267 0.31 0.365
Qd Qh 626101 45.68 740386 54.01 4267 0.31 0.458
Td Th 241047 17.58 1125440 82.10 4267 0.31 0.177

it's moderately better to push against these hands than fold, but not by much.

against AQ and TT:

Ks Ac 464795 33.91 887112 64.72 18847 1.37 0.345
Ad Qh 274958 20.06 1076949 78.57 18847 1.37 0.207
Td Th 612154 44.66 754390 55.03 4210 0.31 0.448

here you're in ok shape for the main pot. if TT is the bigger stack, you're in kinda bad shape for the side (one A is killed), but if it's AQ, then you're in great shape.

AK v KK v QQ is very bad regardless of who has which hand (two K's are dead if you're "racing" with the deeper QQ guy).

Ks Ac 344965 25.17 1017209 74.21 8580 0.63 0.254
Qd Qh 244851 17.86 1120235 81.72 5668 0.41 0.180
Kd Kh 772358 56.35 589816 43.03 8580 0.63 0.566

and i don't even need to mention if one has AA.

there is, however, 4.3k in dead money in the middle (assuming no antes). that's about the only redeeming feature of this push. but i think that the button is going to KK/AA quite frequently, so i have to fold. you're not getting your money in that great unless no one has a pair (or if button has AQ- you're in pretty good shape) and you're getting in horrible if button has the likely AA.

the first cold call is fine. you don't really want to get a-i preflop for 65x bb's with utg.

[Sam T.]

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the first cold call is fine. you don't really want to get a-i preflop for 65x bb's with utg.

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You don't have to get all-in. Raise to 2500-3000.

The problem with the smooth call is that you create a situation in which players in LP may come over the top with marginal holdings. The initial push could easily be a steal of sorts (and a pretty good play if he's got any kind of hand), and it is possible because we've done nothing to force him to define his hand. Right now he's thinking "I've got t6000, there's a ton of money in the pot, and other than the original raiser, nobody's shown any strength. I'm pushing my 99." Re-raise, and it will keep you out of this situation. If he pushes over the top of a re-raise, and then THAT bet is called, you have a better idea where you stand.

Another reason I don't like the smooth call is that with one other player already calling, you're quite possibly looking at even more players coming along thanks to pot odds. While it allows you to get away from a missed flop more cheaply, you essentially need to hit two-pair or beter to bet with much confidence. If the flop comes Axx, and there is a lot of action in front, how happy are you?

And another poster said that folding here is okay, since you've only invested t800. No, no, no. It doesn't matter if you, the button, or the Flying Spaghetti Monster put those chips in the pot. Do you see why?

That said, I'm beginning to see the logic behind folding. I do smell a lot of dead outs in the folded hands. But, boy would I be unhappy to see 99 and JJ.

[schwza]

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the first cold call is fine. you don't really want to get a-i preflop for 65x bb's with utg.

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You don't have to get all-in. Raise to 2500-3000.


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i guess what i should've said was that i didn't like the idea of getting ai for that much and i also didn't like the idea of folding to TT-QQ's reraise. on the plus side, based on the read, utg will likely fold and fishy utg will likely call. i still think calling is a little better though.

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The problem with the smooth call is that you create a situation in which players in LP may come over the top with marginal holdings. The initial push could easily be a steal of sorts (and a pretty good play if he's got any kind of hand), and it is possible because we've done nothing to force him to define his hand. Right now he's thinking "I've got t6000, there's a ton of money in the pot, and other than the original raiser, nobody's shown any strength. I'm pushing my 99." Re-raise, and it will keep you out of this situation. If he pushes over the top of a re-raise, and then THAT bet is called, you have a better idea where you stand.



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when you "make someone define their hand" you also define your own hand for them. one advantage of smooth-calling is that you might lure CO (or someone else) into pushing, which you would then turbo-call. it might be 99, but it also might be AJ.


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Another reason I don't like the smooth call is that with one other player already calling, you're quite possibly looking at even more players coming along thanks to pot odds. While it allows you to get away from a missed flop more cheaply, you essentially need to hit two-pair or beter to bet with much confidence. If the flop comes Axx, and there is a lot of action in front, how happy are you?



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pretty happy. my chips are going in there because the pot is humungous.

(obviously if there is a ton of action i might fold)

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And another poster said that folding here is okay, since you've only invested t800. No, no, no. It doesn't matter if you, the button, or the Flying Spaghetti Monster put those chips in the pot. Do you see why?



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i understand that what you're saying is obviously correct, but there's some element of truth. if there is 300 in the pot and you're the bb and the button pushes for 1k, you're getting better odds if there's a dead SB and you have to call 700 vs if the SB folded and you have to call 800.

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That said, I'm beginning to see the logic behind folding. I do smell a lot of dead outs in the folded hands. But, boy would I be unhappy to see 99 and JJ.

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from my previous post:

Ks Ac 499339 36.43 867148 63.26 4267 0.31 0.365
Qd Qh 626101 45.68 740386 54.01 4267 0.31 0.458
Td Th 241047 17.58 1125440 82.10 4267 0.31 0.177

there's 6240*3 + 800*2 + 300 in the main, so you have 7526 cEV in the main.

in the side, say you're 45% to win. i think this is generous because it's very likely that utg and utg+1 folded at least 1 A/K, but ignore that for now.

the side is (15228-6240)*2, so you have cEV 8089 in the side. total cEV is 15615, and you paid 15228-800 = 14428, so your fold costs you ~1.2k. throw in the fact that gambling is bad, hero is higher skill than avg, and utg and utg+1 probably folded a bunch of your outs, then you're really not going to be kicking yourself at all.

the times you really win out are when button has AQ, or when button folds and CO doesn't have AA. the only way this play is any good is if CO folds somewhat often, i think.

[intheflatfield]

[ QUOTE ]
when you "make someone define their hand" you also define your own hand for them. one advantage of smooth-calling is that you might lure CO (or someone else) into pushing, which you would then turbo-call. it might be 99, but it also might be AJ.


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I'm sorry, but to me this falls under FPS and is very rarely a correct line.

[adanthar]

First off, I don't think making it 3K with AK is bad and I don't think calling is bad either. Here, I called specifically because UTG is not that good and might well hang himself on a worse ace, and because I don't mind calling a push behind me with that many dead chips (if you had AQ somewhere back there, wouldn't you be tempted?)

So CO pushes. He's good, which to me means something other than straight 'TAG', and I think his range is pretty large. I'm already hitting the call button in my head when the button calls.

Now I have a decision to make. Based on some hand ranges and a slight read, I believe one of my outs is in either UTG or UTG+1's hand somewhere. However, this obviously also makes AA/KK even less likely from the button, because not two but three aces/kings are accounted for. It is also good to remember the very similar hand posted here a week ago when button had 44.

So I pushed. Button actually thought a little bit before calling with QQ, and CO had JTs. (UTG said he folded AQ.) That was about what I expected to see...

http://twodimes.net/h/?z=1379497
pokenum -h as kd - qd qh - jc tc / ad qs
Holdem Hi: 1086008 enumerated boards
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
As Kd 384424 35.40 698479 64.32 3105 0.29 0.355
Qd Qh 466312 42.94 616591 56.78 3105 0.29 0.430
Jc Tc 232167 21.38 850736 78.34 3105 0.29 0.215

http://twodimes.net/h/?z=1379508
pokenum -h as kd - qd qh / ad qs jc tc
Holdem Hi: 1086008 enumerated boards
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
As Kd 469910 43.27 610434 56.21 5664 0.52 0.435
Qd Qh 610434 56.21 469910 43.27 5664 0.52 0.565

With the dead chips in the pot and the benefits of winning this hand (a top 10 stack in the tournament) I think the push is pretty easy.

Comments?