AQ vs tag, river bluff?

[WillMagic]

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I can't wait for villain to call with AK and you to feel like a doofus.

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bbbbooooooooo

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Are you booing because I'm being mean or because you think I'm wrong?

Will

[W. Deranged]

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I can't wait for villain to call with AK and you to feel like a doofus.

So, no, you should not bluff here. There's no way villain is folding AK after your turn check. You'd be a lot better off betting the turn and checking behind on the river.

Will

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A 16/10 capps with AK i wouldn't include that in his range.

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I think that this is a very narrow and pretty dangerous view. Trying to deduce one's capping tendencies, particularly in heads-up restealing type situations, from two numbers is severly overstretching the available evidence.

[QTip]

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I can't wait for villain to call with AK and you to feel like a doofus.

So, no, you should not bluff here. There's no way villain is folding AK after your turn check. You'd be a lot better off betting the turn and checking behind on the river.

Will

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A 16/10 capps with AK i wouldn't include that in his range.

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You can't discount it totally. There are plenty of players whom I will not cap there with AKo being oop.

[27offsooot]

bet the turn. Check behind on the river.

[QTip]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
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I can't wait for villain to call with AK and you to feel like a doofus.

[/ QUOTE ]

bbbbooooooooo

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Are you booing because I'm being mean or because you think I'm wrong?

Will

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Meany.

[SNOWBALL138]

I don't think he's holding or folding AK often enough.

"I don't think AT is calling a river bet that much, honestly, and I doubt KQ ever really is, but this is obviously read dependent. "

I complete agree with this. If he does call with AT, he's putting you on A8 or worse three-betting preflop. I think his most likely hand to call with are 88's or smaller, AK, and A9s, none of which you beat.

If I were villian in this situation with a small pair and check the turn and it gets checked thru, i'm checking and calling the river like he did. What value does he have for betting the river with 88s? I think when he checks, he's hoping you have AK or AQ and will bet hoping he has AK or AQ and will fold.

Lastly, when you checked thru on the turn, i expect you were going to fold to a bet unimproved, I see no reason to bet the river. I'm betting the turn and checking the river expecting him to flip A9 or 88's.

[chesspain]

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I'm also wondering why you're checking this turn Eddie.

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Yeah, I was wondering about the "bet the turn, check behind on the river line."