|
|
#11
11-30-2005, 12:35 AM
|
|||
|
|||
Re: Great 2 Team Parlay tonight (ESPN)
[ QUOTE ]
Making an even-money bet with a 46% chance of winning is still a bad bet, but it'll win frequently. This is why being results-oriented is a bad thing. [/ QUOTE ] well if he wins that bet 46% of the time then its a HUGE +EV bet. he posted that he got almost 2 to one (i think he said 30 to win 54) However, I'm not sure thats right for a -210 and a -110 parlay. but im not here to call te guy a liar. and to be clear, I still tink it was a bad bet, both games were complete toss ups where he hit heads both times. Ken PS I took the night off as I have lost about 4 days in a row, but my two mental bets where both winners( Hofstra and Michigan) aint that the way it always breaks??? 
|
|
#13
11-30-2005, 01:35 AM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: Great 2 Team Parlay tonight (ESPN)
[ QUOTE ]
it was 5-9 on bodog [/ QUOTE ] nice play. thats a better bet then I thought. Plus, if you enjoyed watching the games more with some chas on them then there is that to factor in also. Good Luck with your next wagers. Ken
|
|
#14
11-30-2005, 06:59 AM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: Great 2 Team Parlay tonight (ESPN)
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] Making an even-money bet with a 46% chance of winning is still a bad bet, but it'll win frequently. This is why being results-oriented is a bad thing. [/ QUOTE ] well if he wins that bet 46% of the time then its a HUGE +EV bet. [/ QUOTE ] Yes, that's true. I didn't think he'd win this one 46% of the time. My point was that you can make bad bets which still win. Sports bets don't have like -50% EV. Even the worst bets still win a significant fraction of the time. So citing results is a dumb way to defend your bets.
|
|
#15
11-30-2005, 08:44 AM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: Great 2 Team Parlay tonight (ESPN)
The -210 and -110 money line parlay is correct.
I use the VipSports Calculator for these. http://www.vip-information.com/sports/calculator.htm I made a similar Parlay last night -210 on wake and -110 on Michigan -4.5
|
|
#16
11-30-2005, 01:31 PM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: Great 2 Team Parlay tonight (ESPN)
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] Making an even-money bet with a 46% chance of winning is still a bad bet, but it'll win frequently. This is why being results-oriented is a bad thing. [/ QUOTE ] well if he wins that bet 46% of the time then its a HUGE +EV bet. [/ QUOTE ] Yes, that's true. I didn't think he'd win this one 46% of the time. My point was that you can make bad bets which still win. Sports bets don't have like -50% EV. Even the worst bets still win a significant fraction of the time. So citing results is a dumb way to defend your bets. [/ QUOTE ] I agree with you. I figure wake wins the game outright about 60-65% of the time and Illini win about 55%(???) which means he needed 3 to 1 to make it a good bet. however there is no way to know if these numbers are correct so it's still just everyone's two cents. Ken
|
 |
|
|
Linear Mode
