Can I fold TPTK?

[jt1]

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what are you hoping to see on the turn? what sort of range are you putting villain on that one more card will make such a difference against?

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I'm looking for an excuse to see a SD. I think villian has a monster but the pot is big. Also if CO has just a draw it gives him a chance to check the turn and saves hero the pot. (this isn't that likely, imo, because CO will bet turn nearly all the time even with a draw)

[Redd]

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I find that a lot of player overplay their hand w/ top pair on a monotone flop to try to drive out weak flush draws/better hands. I def. think folding the flop is a huge mistake.

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This isn't a case of someone overplaying their hand. This is either a monster, a very knowledgable player trying to represent one, or a LAG deciding to raise when given another chance. Villian's numbers aren't even borderline laggy.

I think you can call one sb and fold the turn UI.

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This could just as easily be the nut-flush draw value-3betting the flop once he sees he'll have enough callers. IMO a calldown is a must here.

[jt1]

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This could just as easily be the nut-flush draw value-3betting the flop once he sees he'll have enough callers. IMO a calldown is a must here.

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If villian is value betting a draw then he knows enough to at least consider checking the turn. I'd say a value bet draw betting the turn is 50/50. And since I think villian likely has a monster in the first place, once he bets that turn, the odds are even better that he has a monster.

BTW, in my previous post, i said that villian will always bet turn if he's raising on a draw. I differentiating between a player who knows what he's doing and one who doesn't. Players TAG enough to value raise draws are rare and, therefore, I think that villian is either making a LAG bet or has the goods. Since villians numbers aren't LAGGY, I think that villian is very likely on a monster of some sort, probably a flush or a set.

[Roadstar]

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This could just as easily be the nut-flush draw value-3betting the flop once he sees he'll have enough callers. IMO a calldown is a must here.

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I agree with the first part of the sentence. Villain doing the call then raise on the flop could easily be a flush draw value bet (or + gutshot w/ something like A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]J or A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]Q.

Since CO didn't 3 bet preflop, you're less likely to be behind AA, KK or TT (so the flush and 66).

Looks like you should pop a raise on a non [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] turn and fold to a 3 bet. You can't let a flush draw get a free card on the turn there.

[bobman0330]

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You can't let a flush draw get a free card on the turn there.

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You can too. The FD never ever ever ever folds, so giving a free card is only a 1 BB mistake.

In any case, I fold this hand, but calling down can't be too bad.

It doesnt matter if he never folds. You should not be giving a freecard because you are getting the best of it. The odds are against him hitting the flush, meaning that your bets put in before he hits earn you money. If you give him a free card, you are giving him infinite odds to hit his flush.

This isnt like in NL before the flop where you wait until the flop before goign all in on a safe board. This is limit where you must value bet relentlessly and you should charge people for their draws.

[bobman0330]

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It doesnt matter if he never folds. You should not be giving a freecard because you are getting the best of it. The odds are against him hitting the flush, meaning that your bets put in before he hits earn you money. If you give him a free card, you are giving him infinite odds to hit his flush.

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If he shows a flush draw, then go ahead and bet. But in this case, we're certainly not ahead of his range.

The free card is most dangerous when there are weak draws villain would be correct to fold if we bet. In this case, a bet is good even if we're quite likely to be behind, because we will sometimes save the entire pot. Not betting/raising in a situation like this can be, as DS says, "a mathematical catastrophe."

In this case, we're quite likely to be behind, but when we deny him a free card, we never save the entire pot. We just get some fraction of a bet. That extra value is much smaller than in the first instance, and you need to be ahead a lot more often for the bet to be right.

If checked to here you wouldnt bet?

[Spicymoose]

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I find that a lot of player overplay their hand w/ top pair on a monotone flop to try to drive out weak flush draws/better hands. I def. think folding the flop is a huge mistake.

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This isn't a case of someone overplaying their hand. This is either a monster, a very knowledgable player trying to represent one, or a LAG deciding to raise when given another chance. Villian's numbers aren't even borderline laggy.

I think you can call one sb and fold the turn UI.

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For the VPIP he has, 1.4 is decently agressive. He could easily have the A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] and be playing the flop like that. Furthermore, he might be on the turn with that draw, or he might have a pair also, so would be the turn.

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If villian is value betting a draw then he knows enough to at least consider checking the turn.

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There is still one person to act. If he's on a draw, he gives his hand away and risks being bluffed on a save river. If he has a made flush, he knows that most people won't pay off if he check/raises them. So I dont't see, why an educated player should consider checking that turn so much.