#11
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Re: Multi-way pot with a flopped straight-flush draw
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[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] I fold... neither straight nor flush is anywhere close to being the nuts. (unless you hit your straight flush, although that's still NOT going to be the nuts..) I don't think high clubs are going to fold this, neither are hands like JT, or T9, etc... I think you'll be drawing very thin if you pushed this here, unless your villians are way tight and all fold, which at a $10 Party SNG is highly unlikely. [/ QUOTE ] What, you think they all hit this flop hard? The point is you will have a strong draw against anyone who didn't flop a flush... and you still have outs even there. [/ QUOTE ] I don't think anybody with the Ac/Jc (possibly Kc/Qc) is folding here, therefore blowing away most of your outs that make you favourite against a pair. I just don't see you having the 15 outs that you imagine having here. [/ QUOTE ] You have a pair already. If AcKh wants to come along, for example, you're fine with that. If they have a better pair *and* a higher club, just draw to the non-club straight instead. Sure, you can construct scenarios where each villain has specifically the type of hand that kills a different set of your outs, but how often will that happen? |
#12
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Re: Multi-way pot with a flopped straight-flush draw
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[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] I fold... neither straight nor flush is anywhere close to being the nuts. (unless you hit your straight flush, although that's still NOT going to be the nuts..) I don't think high clubs are going to fold this, neither are hands like JT, or T9, etc... I think you'll be drawing very thin if you pushed this here, unless your villians are way tight and all fold, which at a $10 Party SNG is highly unlikely. [/ QUOTE ] What, you think they all hit this flop hard? The point is you will have a strong draw against anyone who didn't flop a flush... and you still have outs even there. [/ QUOTE ] I don't think anybody with the Ac/Jc (possibly Kc/Qc) is folding here, therefore blowing away most of your outs that make you favourite against a pair. I just don't see you having the 15 outs that you imagine having here. [/ QUOTE ] You have a pair already. If AcKh wants to come along, for example, you're fine with that. If they have a better pair *and* a higher club, just draw to the non-club straight instead. Sure, you can construct scenarios where each villain has specifically the type of hand that kills a different set of your outs, but how often will that happen? [/ QUOTE ] In my opinion the key to this hand is the multi-way pot, which means the situations you mention will occur more frequentely. Another key is "Sams" t85 bet, less than 1/4 of the pot. This bet usually screams of somebody wanting a cheap draw. More often than not, at the $10 level from somebody with the Ac. And I see this hand calling your push very often. Yes an OESD and flush draw IS a strong hand and favoured over any ONE pair.. but let's not get carried away with this. In a mutli-way pot you're more often against more than one pair, or a stronger draw. I still believe a fold here is correct. |
#13
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Re: Multi-way pot with a flopped straight-flush draw
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In a mutli-way pot you're more often against more than one pair, or a stronger draw. I still believe a fold here is correct. [/ QUOTE ] But there's also more money in there in a multi-way pot, and as I explained, it will be rare that you won't have some kind of strong draw. I still see this as an easy push, but I guess there's nothing more to be said. |
#14
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Re: Multi-way pot with a flopped straight-flush draw
A lone Queen of clubs eats nearly all of your outs for dinner.
You have a ton of outs against top pair with rag kicker, but all of those outs are likely making a third party a better hand. No hand that you are significantly ahead of thinks about putting any money in this pot. The best case scenario is something like Ac8s or something calling you. |
#15
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Re: Multi-way pot with a flopped straight-flush draw
That flop isn't nearly as strong as one might think. However, it is a scary flop for others, so a push MIGHT just take it down on the flop.
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#16
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Re: Multi-way pot with a flopped straight-flush draw
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A lone Queen of clubs eats nearly all of your outs for dinner. You have a ton of outs against top pair with rag kicker, but all of those outs are likely making a third party a better hand. No hand that you are significantly ahead of thinks about putting any money in this pot. The best case scenario is something like Ac8s or something calling you. [/ QUOTE ] You're worried about exactly one card? When, unless the other card in that player's hand also hit the flop, you are still ahead? Meanwhile, the other dude claimed that everyone is calling me with any piece of the flop. It's a semi-bluff, guys. You're happy to take it down now. If you don't, you will almost always have a decent draw. That's it, I'm done. |
#17
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Re: Multi-way pot with a flopped straight-flush draw
Push?... I don't get it. What else can you do?
Calling is meh, you want this heads up or over. Now. |
#18
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Re: Multi-way pot with a flopped straight-flush draw
I don't understand why you and some of the others just assume you have so many outs. With so many people in the pot, can't someone already have a higher flush, leaving you with one or maybe two outs? I think there are a lot of hands which have you beat here. Of course I don't play the $10s, so maybe some donk will call you with just the A of clubs or just a 10. But even in those cases you aren't a big favorite, so I don't think I push here.
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#19
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Re: Multi-way pot with a flopped straight-flush draw
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I don't understand why you and some of the others just assume you have so many outs. With so many people in the pot, can't someone already have a higher flush, leaving you with one or maybe two outs? I think there are a lot of hands which have you beat here. Of course I don't play the $10s, so maybe some donk will call you with just the A of clubs or just a 10. But even in those cases you aren't a big favorite, so I don't think I push here. [/ QUOTE ] Meh, there might be monsters under my bed too, but I still sleep. |
#20
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Re: Multi-way pot with a flopped straight-flush draw
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I push. It takes a very special hand to be ahead of us here. Namely, a better hand and a better draw or a set, and there's tons of dead money in the pot. Board: 9c 8c Tc Dead: equity (%) win (%) tie (%) Hand 1: 55.1515 % 54.34% 00.81% { 9h7c } Hand 2: 44.8485 % 44.04% 00.81% { JdTs } Board: 9c 8c Tc Dead: equity (%) win (%) tie (%) Hand 1: 61.5152 % 60.10% 01.41% { 9h7c } Hand 2: 38.4848 % 37.07% 01.41% { Ac8s } Board: 9c 8c Tc Dead: equity (%) win (%) tie (%) Hand 1: 45.5051 % 43.94% 01.57% { 9h7c } Hand 2: 54.4949 % 52.93% 01.57% { 8d8s } Board: 9c 8c Tc Dead: equity (%) win (%) tie (%) Hand 1: 38.9899 % 37.58% 01.41% { 9h7c } Hand 2: 61.0101 % 59.60% 01.41% { AcTs } [/ QUOTE ] Why did you not include JQ or two clubs, two very possible holdings that put hero way behind? |
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