**Shorthanded Long Run**

soda · #1 11-06-2003, 02:03 PM

What is generally considered a reasonable amount of hands that one might confidently say "Ok, I've played _____ hands and I'm winning 2 Big Bets per table, per hour at $.50/$1 on Party Poker" and it would be considered sustainable at this level of play long term.

Surely it's less than a billion, but more than 5,000. I'm currently over 30,000 in my database - which would equate to about 6 months casino time, in a full ring game. Is this enough? Is shorthanded any different than full ring games? I don't know - can anyone tell me?

Thanks,

soda

Nottom · #2 11-06-2003, 02:37 PM

Check out this post by BruceZ.

It's a brief explanation of how do determine your winrate confidence level.

a web page

soda · #3 11-06-2003, 04:01 PM

WOW - thanks.

My standard error is 1.11 BB. Which basically means that my results are worth diddlysquat. But, at least I can be 68% sure that they are worth diddlysquat.

[img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

soda

Nottom · #4 11-07-2003, 12:19 AM

When people tell you it takes a long time to narrow down your winrate, they really mean it. [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

soda · #5 11-07-2003, 05:41 AM

Sooooo, three weeks isn't enough time?

[img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

Nottom · #6 11-07-2003, 03:44 PM

I wouldn't say they mean diddly. If you are making 2.5BB/hout you can be 95% confident you are indeed a winning player, which is more than most people can claim.