I always pay off

[tallstack]

I think that many things work against the calldown here. You were UTG when you raised, an ace came out, the turn card did not complete any likely draw, and a generally passive opponent check-raised the turn. Also, the likelihood that this opponent is taking a shot at you based on sensing some weakness you have is low given the title of your post.

As a guess (feel free to rip apart my hand calcs). You are winning about 11% of showdowns against a range of hands (A8s, A8o, A7s, A7o, A4s, A4o, 87s, 87o, 88, 77, 44). You are winning about 80% of showdowns against some random bluff that might include a flush draw, worse pair, or pair plus weak draw. If you need to win 22% of showdowns to break even, then your opponent needs to be bluffing about 14% or more. I don't think it is likely that this passive type of opponent is bluffing this often on this board against an UTG raiser who always calls down. This just isn't a great bluffing opporunity for the BB in my opinion. If there is equity in the calldown getting ~7:2 then there can't be much.


Dave