A question for Steve Hudak

[Ezcheeze]

If it was that simple I would call as I would expect to gain 19,800 chips in EV by making the call.

In the real-life situation that occured if you do an EV analysis giving my opponent a reasonable hand range based on his actions then things change alot. I suggest you do that and keep in mind that it is the final table of a tournament.

[AJo Go All In]

you said: "there is a less than 5% chance he has worse than a pair." i said: "based on that how can you fold?" you said: "i already said what i was thinking."

so i guess now you are saying that you really thought there was a good enough chance that he had 7x, 55, AA, KK (this should have been the answer to my original question). fair enough i guess, but these hands seem so unlikely to me i have trouble seeing how a fold could be correct.

i mean, admittedly i've never played with kido but it sounds like he is a volatile, erratic player. he moved in with JT when he easily could have folded after hachem had committed half of his chips. based on this it would seem that there is a reasonable chance that he can tell for whatever reason that you don't like your hand and is taking a shot with a hand like AJ or KQ.

[Ezcheeze]

Giving him AA, KK, 55, 7x only 20% of the time, a hand I'll be way ahead of 5% of the time, and a pair QQ or lower besides 55 or 77 75% of the time my EV would come out to about +15300 on the call. This is a pretty small gain compared to what I'm riskig by putting the chips in. I'm not sure if this would be worth putting the chips in for, I'd have to do some more calculations.

At the table during the hand I put the chance at him having one of the hands that had me in bad shape much higher than in this calculation. This was based on alot of factors you had to be at the table to see and I know you disagree with my guesstimates.

[AJo Go All In]

fair enough, i mean 20% seems wildly pessimistic to me, i would have put it at more like 5%.

[Ezcheeze]

Let's try to guess at what his preflop calling range is. He's probably going to fold any hand except a pair or AK. I'm not sure how likely he is to reraise all in preflop with a big pair or AK. To simplify things lets say he always reraises all in with AK and calls with every pair (just hypothetical). Then on the flop when he checks theres 6 each of QQ-22 excluding 77 and 55. Thats 6 each of 9 hands. Theres 1 77 and 3 55 hands. Theres 3 each of AA and KK. This would put him at 18.5% to have me in really bad shape.

Clearly, this number isn't accurate as some of the time hell reraise me preflop with AA or KK. I wouldn't be surprised to see him slowplay those hands (espcially AA) preflop though as doing so would make it almost impossible for me to get away from after betting the flop whereas I might be able to get away from a huge preflop reraise.

It's not accurate at all but I thought you'd be interested to see how high the percentage is in this simplified model.

[AJo Go All In]

[ QUOTE ]
Thats 6 each of 9 hands. Theres 1 77 and 3 55 hands. Theres 3 each of AA and KK. This would put him at 18.5% to have me in really bad shape.

[/ QUOTE ]

well yeah you made an error here it's 10 out of 64 hands not 10 out of 54 so even in your model it's only 15.625%

also again you know the player better than i do but i would think the majority of the time he is reraising you with AA and KK before the flop.

if you really think he is not capable of being in there with something like 87s then i'm even more inclined to call as that was my biggest concern.

[Ezcheeze]

Oops yea my mistake. No I don't think he's calling preflop with hands like 87s.
I don't see why it would make you more likely to call though if he doesn't have 87s as if he did you'd also have to include the other suited-connected type hands in his range and the vast majority of those make only a str8 draw on the flop or completely miss.
We pretty much agree on how to do figure out the EV in this case, it just comes down to our specific reads to adjust the numbers.