#13
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Re: Pretty Standard I Guess
It's true that when you miss the turn, your hand may become somewhat transparent when you check. However, someone may also be worried that you're going for another c/r, and the turn may get checked through.
Also, we will occassionally hit the turn and our hand will be somewhat disguised. And while we will be open to redraws if a nine hits (and to a much lesser extent a heart), I don't think that matters all that much given the amount of equity we would have. This pot is somewhat big now, and we will be hard pressed to protect ourselves from redraws regardless of the flop action. I also don't think we're getting 3-bet here all that often. And even if we do, the fish might come along anyway. Then when we check the turn, our hand is not as transparent as you are worried it might be if everyone calls and we miss. We also somewhat benefit when we get 3-bet in the sense that those redraws we may be exposed to when we hit the turn are less likely if 1/2 of our opponents ends up folding. There are benefits to calling, and benefits to raising this flop. All in all, they seem to somewhat cancel each other out. For this reason, I'm pushing my immediate equity edge on this flop with a raise. |
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