straight counterfeited and it's 2 back to me

[Slim Pickens]

At the time, I had no idea you would have folded a ten. I could see you holding a ten, diamond draw, or set in that situation, and after your cogitation and fold assumed it was a set or flush draw. I was pretty sure I was at best chopping with the raiser, but MP-fish could have anything, and I thought we were splitting his money if I dodged the necessary bullets.

[tyler_cracker]

Clearly i am never folding a set or a flush draw there. I'm not *that* weak-tight.

[MrWookie47]

I haven't worked out the numbers, but I think folding a set or a flush draw there is better than folding a T.

[masse75]

Call down unless diamond hits the river. Overaggression there and I fold.

[Slim Pickens]

[ QUOTE ]
I haven't worked out the numbers, but I think folding a set or a flush draw there is better than folding a T.

[/ QUOTE ]

A set has ten outs at best and will probably win since JJ might have raised preflop and another set would have certainly raised the flop. The flush draw has nine outs, and since he was on the blind I don't necessarily put tyler on even a good diamond draw.

The odds on folding the straight are hard. If someone has a flush draw, you lose 20% of the time. You also lose some fraction of the time to QT, although I agree you probably would have heard from the flopped top straight on the flop. I was totally unconcerned about a big flopped hand because the only bet came from tyler, and that could be a lot of different things. Anyway, someone with KT also has 4 outs to the higher straight, and any 2-pair has 4 to the boat. I have a hard time believing that you can make up probabilities for all these holdings that when multiplied by their repective probabilities of hitting (if necessary) don't give you the odds you're getting now even if there is a 4/5 bet behind.

[ QUOTE ]
I haven't worked out the numbers, but I think folding a set or a flush draw there is better than folding a T.

[/ QUOTE ]

id agree with this.... you sure you werent just tilted when you made this play?

[Slim Pickens]

[ QUOTE ]
Call down unless diamond hits the river. Overaggression there and I fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

Even if the third diamond hits on the river, from EP (me, then tyler) tyler gets to invest at most one bet before seeing what wackiness evolves on the river. If he calls and the diamond hits, I likely check-call and so does he, leaving only the two fish to do any raising, which they won't, because they're fish. I'm calling down pretty much no matter what in a pot of this size.

let's hope we have some idiot-enders, and maybe we just split the dead money with TAG. We would have expected to see more action on the flop by the TAG with QT. Call and keep the dead money in.

edit: clarification