BRONCOS -13 OVER jets

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This is easy money.

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There is no easy money in the NFL.

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Every once in a while a great opportunity pops up. You get maybe 4 or 5 of these a season. This is one of them.

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Hard to believe that laying 13 is one of the best opportunities of the season, but good luck.

I generally like very few lines. My three favorite lines of the season are ALL this week. But this isn't one of them.

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What have you got?

[DougOzzzz]

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This is easy money.

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There is no easy money in the NFL.

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Every once in a while a great opportunity pops up. You get maybe 4 or 5 of these a season. This is one of them.

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Okay, so what is the "true" line of this game? Realize that, in the NFL, there have been fewer than 20 games the past 13 years that had lines of -17 or worse for the favorites. And these games are all huge, huge mismatches. Powerhouse teams at home against pathetic teams on the road.

Even if you think that a "fair" price is -16, which seems highly unlikely, DEN would only cover 13 about 60% of the time. They are certainly not "true" 20 point favorites, which is about the point where this would be called "easy money".

[27offsuit]

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This is easy money.

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There is no easy money in the NFL.

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[Lori]

I think Denver will win this game by exactly 14 often enough to mean that 13 is a good line.
I wouldn't be at all keen on the line at 14.

Lori

[plus_man]

Good point. Because of this, I'm giving Denver the first quarter(-.5,-141) and half(-7,-109)

[sublime]

while -13 might actually be a deal by gametime, I am more dumbfounded the closer kickoff looms that anybody would bet even play money on the broncos in this spot.

[DougOzzzz]

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I think Denver will win this game by exactly 14 often enough to mean that 13 is a good line.
I wouldn't be at all keen on the line at 14.

Lori

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If you really think 14 is such a likely result, there is a profitable soft middle available on that number right now:

Mansion - Broncos -13.5 -104
Sports Interaction - Jets +14 EV

Risk $2 to win $100 (should come through about 6%).

[Lori]

Thanks Doug.

I didn't get to see this in time, but thanks for taking the time to post it. It's exactly the sort of logical bet that I love.

I'm certain that this was more than a 50-1 shot to win by exactly 14, so you basically got me some free money even though I a) Didn't get on it and b) It didn't come in.

Thanks

Lori

[McGahee]

Well this would've been bumped 100 times by now if you were wrong, so I will bump for anti-flamage. The Jets offense predictably could do nothing.
It's strange - the Jets under Herm have always been a better road team than home - until this year - they've just been awful. They always play hard but between age & injuries their personnel is just below average at every single position offensively.

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This is easy money. The Broncos are a well-oiled machine and virtually unbeatable at home. The Jets are just in freefall right now and their offense is handing the other team points instead of scoring their own. Mismatches all over the field in this game. I can't see Denver winning by less than 3 scores. The Jets have no reason to play hard here and even if they did, they don't have the personnel on the field to put up even a vague fight. Broncos 38-10

Thoughts?

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Hope you guys had a nice payday with my selection.

Like I said, EASY MONEY.