The Bird Flu Pandemic

sanitation here in the US might be great, but not in other countries...In China, people sleep with the chickens in their pen so that no one steals there chickens. That means they probably eat around them, possibley don't wash their hands after handleing the chickens...In Romainia, there was a quanrantine because all the birds had the virus...to get in or out of the city, you have to walk through a pond of disinfectant. when this old guy was walking through, he lets out a chicken from under his shirt that he was trying to sneak in...just stupid stuff like this is going to allow this virus to get out..not to mention that birds FLY all over the world...and this virus is different because humans don't have any immunity built up. most viruses are a mix between human and animal viruses...the avain flu crossed the human barrier intact, meaning that we havne't had time to built up immunity...
also, this virus starts with similar symptoms of the common flu...people aren't going to rush to the hospital to get treated, and therefore, are going to spread it around...
so no, it hasn't actually been transmitted from human to human, but there is a high chance that it will be able to...it's just a matter of time

[wacki]

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When in doubt, consult Michael Fumento for a rational evaluation of all things scientific.

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I don't agree with this. He picks obviously flawed arguements made by ignorant people or complete idiots. This tactic makes it easy for him to seem like he's always right while only giving an incomplete answer. He never tackles the really tough questions that take hardcore research.

For instance his article on oilsands completely ignores what tar sand mining will do to the atmosphere. He doesn't mentioned the toxic lakes created by this process that will be larger than our own great lakes either. It paints a very rosy picture when it's really not that rosy at all.

Also, he's written almost a hundred articles on global warming but never mentions ITER, Richard Smalley, Mellilo, or any of the big name respected scientists. He only attacks the media.

Michael Fumento is for lightweights that don't know how to think critically.

[imported_anacardo]

I'm glad that your well-documented disease paranoia has a new way to express itself. You must be relieved! [img]/images/graemlins/smirk.gif[/img]

[Matt Flynn]

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If that scenario really happened, the effects of the ensuing panic would be a lot worse than the effects of 2% of the population dying.

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What hard-to-predict things do you predict would happen?

[wacki]

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I did not know that. Do you have a link?

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I worked for a global infectious disease unit for a while. So most of my information came from field researchers actually doing the work and journals passed out during lab meetings. I'll try and dig up some info. Cruzi is not the only bug that's like this though.

Here is an article about sero positive racoons in georgia.

http://www.bioone.org/bioone/?request=ge...5&page=1155

The indirect immunofluorescent antibody test (IFAT) and enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) were compared with blood culture for the detection of Trypanosoma cruzi infection in 83 raccoons (Procyon lotor) trapped in 4 counties of southeast Georgia.

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Forty-five of 83 serum samples (54%) were positive for anti-T. cruzi antibodies with the ELISA, and 47 were IFAT positive (57%).

[Matt Flynn]

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Yea, these stats are all scary, but the real reason we have heard so much about bird flu: the [censored] 24 hour news channels that need to fill up space, so they find "potential" threats like this and pump them up as much as they can. No one is going to call them on it either if they are wrong or wildly inaccurate, they'll just keep watching and worrying.

Bird flu might be a problem someday, but I have no worries for this or the next couple years. Hopefully by the time it actually is a threat they have a better plan than whats in place now.

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Good points. My guess is the true probability is a lot closer to you than to CNN.

[Matt Flynn]

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However, there will likely be enough Ambu bags and oxygen bottles.


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Ambu bags? How long would you have to use an Ambu bag on someone? A week 24/7? Also, I assume whoever is using the Ambu bag would be at high risk of contracting the disease.

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Yes and yes. Makes you think about your friends doesn't it?

[miajag81]

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If that scenario really happened, the effects of the ensuing panic would be a lot worse than the effects of 2% of the population dying.

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What hard-to-predict things do you predict would happen?

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I would guess the economy collapsing or at least being crippled for a few months would lead to many more deaths and hardship, especially in third-world countries.

[Matt Flynn]

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So if I'm a 2nd year medical student who will be starting rotations next year with a history of empeyema requiring a thoracotomy does this mean I should be worried?

I am so [censored].

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Naw, you're in good shape. We should have a vaccine next year - or at least I hope so.

But you are [censored] anyway because you are going into medicine. ;-)

[wacki]

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Yes and yes. Makes you think about your friends doesn't it?

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With an electric motor, some flexible tubing, and an ambu bag I'd make my own respirator. Seriously, there is no reason why a respirator should be expensive or in short supply. Yes they won't be as good as the uber expensive hospital ones are, and it might not have all of the electronic alarms and such, but I'd put good money on my ability to make one that was almost as reliable from parts obtained from home depo.