10-20 Badugi Hand vs GuyOnTilt

[fnord_too]

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That is, unless he is checking the river enough (with a loser) here to make check calling the turn profitable, get out on the turn. I don't see GoT making a check/call/check/fold line profitable for you.

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I don't think it matters much that it's GoT here. As long as we can presume he actually has a badugi, just from combinatorics we can see that it's not going to be worse than JT often enough.

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It's not combinatorics I was getting at, but conditional probability. If the bet on the turn means he is behind less than 90%, but an ensuing bet on the river means he is behind more than 92% of the time, his line works (if I added the pot correctly). I just don't see both of those conditions being met.