How would you play this?

[Shillx]

I'm just ramming and jamming this one.

[Bill Lumberg]

[ QUOTE ]
here's all i'm saying (and it's not that important):

knowing the odds of some player at the table flopping a certain hand is not important at all. what is important is being able to read hands in order to come up with hand ranges for other players.

edit: also, since we're on this whole random hand probability bullcrap.... all this under 1% stuff is not right. we see that the flop has 3 hearts. we also have 2 hearts. the probability that this guy also has 2 hearts (obviously assuming he would play all hands exactly the same preflop), is

8/47 * 7/46 = 0.0259, or 2.6%. does it matter? nope.

[/ QUOTE ]

You're right. It's not important here. What is important is that Hero doesn't flip out when villain 3-bets the flop and C/C both the turn and the river. Agreed?

[robertsonjohn]

Clearly I'm an idiot, but a turn check raise seems bad to me. I think we're likely ahead, but our hand is very vulnerable and you've got two guys who see the 3 suited board and don't seem to want to go away.

I would call the flop 3bet and then lead the turn - if UTG+1 raises again, there's a decent chance that SB goes away, possibly folding a mid-level heart. You can then check call a non-heart river, hoping he overestimated his set or straight (and that he didn't fill up on the river) or check-call/check-fold a river heart (probably depends on his aggression level).

If he opts to call instead of raising, that means it's a lot less likely he has a better flush and you can feel better about leading a non-heart river.

[trainslayer]

I wouldn't have.

[ QUOTE ]
The preflop raiser is not playing good cards off the bad and has taken a few beats which left him raising PF a lot. Since I was in the BB I decided to limp this one.


[/ QUOTE ]

What?

i really hope the person that used the f word (fold) in a postflop context was kidding around here....

but anyway, cap the flop, lead the turn. if your gonna call the flop you have to checkraise the turn.

there is nothing to be scared off here, the only flushing hands that raise preflop are AhKh and AhJh, and both of those are slowplaying that flop a great proportion of the time at this level because they are very unlikely to be drawn out on and dont want folds.

just keep raising, expect to be shown AhKx, AhAx or KhKx 90+% of the time.

the way SB slowed down but called the river i would expect him to have something like QxJh or even just Qx

oh... and FOLD PREFLOP. EVERY SINGLE TIME...

but you knew that bit already

[ QUOTE ]
here's all i'm saying (and it's not that important):

knowing the odds of some player at the table flopping a certain hand is not important at all. what is important is being able to read hands in order to come up with hand ranges for other players.

edit: also, since we're on this whole random hand probability bullcrap.... all this under 1% stuff is not right. we see that the flop has 3 hearts. we also have 2 hearts. the probability that this guy also has 2 hearts (obviously assuming he would play all hands exactly the same preflop), is

8/47 * 7/46 = 0.0259, or 2.6%. does it matter? nope.

[/ QUOTE ]

Knowing the odds of someone flopping a particular hand is indeed important in this hand and in many others. You can use these odds to find the frequency in which UTG+1 will have certain hands based on both his betting and the probablity. If you can put him on five likely hands and you then find the probability of him having each of these hands you can figure out a much better likelyhood of what his hand may be. While it is important use flop play to aid in hand reading abilities you should not completely overlook the probabilites but rather use both in your hand reading ability

One could argue that he is playing it how he would play the flush so you should check/call or maybe even check/fold but this thinking fails to overlook the fact that his play in this hand can also be many hands that the Hero is already beating.