Roy Cooke article in Card Player is wrong.

[augie00]

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I've played probably 500,000 hands of online poker from $1-$2 to $5-$10 and have not deviated down more than 150 BB at any point.

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damn. you must be the best poker player on earth. geez. i would like to stake you for 20/40. i'll have to sell my car but it will be worth it.

seriously, man. i know some damn talented LHE players and they have ALL swung down 500 bets or more at one point in time. 500k hands? are you sure?

[Posty123]

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I've played probably 500,000 hands of online poker from $1-$2 to $5-$10 and have not deviated down more than 150 BB at any point.

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damn. you must be the best poker player on earth. geez. i would like to stake you for 20/40. i'll have to sell my car but it will be worth it.

seriously, man. i know some damn talented LHE players and they have ALL swung down 500 bets or more at one point in time. 500k hands? are you sure?

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12% VPIP 30% WTSD 3 AF

[SoCalRugger]

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I've played probably 500,000 hands of online poker from $1-$2 to $5-$10 and have not deviated down more than 150 BB at any point.

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damn. you must be the best poker player on earth. geez. i would like to stake you for 20/40. i'll have to sell my car but it will be worth it.

seriously, man. i know some damn talented LHE players and they have ALL swung down 500 bets or more at one point in time. 500k hands? are you sure?

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12% VPIP 30% WTSD 3 AF

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See that augie? He really is the best poker player on earth. Man, did he show you...

[Posty123]

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I've played probably 500,000 hands of online poker from $1-$2 to $5-$10 and have not deviated down more than 150 BB at any point.

[/ QUOTE ]

damn. you must be the best poker player on earth. geez. i would like to stake you for 20/40. i'll have to sell my car but it will be worth it.

seriously, man. i know some damn talented LHE players and they have ALL swung down 500 bets or more at one point in time. 500k hands? are you sure?

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12% VPIP 30% WTSD 3 AF

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See that augie? He really is the best poker player on earth. Man, did he show you...

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Was that intended as a cogent comment?

Those are my stats from my experience. If your intent was to imply that those stats do not imply the variance I mentioned, I would appreciate your input. That was my intent of posting those numbers.

Bottom line, from experience, does anyone else disagree with Cooke's comments?

I've never had a downswing bigger then 150BB either. I don't understand why that is hard to swallow for some people. I posted my winrate in an earlier thread and most people thought i was making it up. I have not read the article in question but I haven't played b&m either so I couldn't compare the two. 200 to 300 BB's seems like a safe number to start at at the small stakes tables if you are a decent player. Probably less for good players.

[SinCityGuy]

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I've never had a downswing bigger then 150BB either.

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150BB is a bit low for online play. You'll have one worse than that at some point if you keep playing. At the other extreme, the 500, 600, 700BB downswings that some of the lagtards in the HUSH forum go through are a product of their own recklessness.

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150BB is a bit low for online play. You'll have one worse than that at some point if you keep playing.

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I will be very surprised if this happens. Alot of posts are made on variance and winrate, and the sample size needed to assess them. I think this is less of an issue at smaller stakes, and that most of these posters are mid stake players or higher. Dead money mitigates long term variance and thusly mitigates the need for bigger sample sizes to assess variance, winrate, ect...

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I've played probably 500,000 hands of online poker from $1-$2 to $5-$10 and have not deviated down more than 150 BB at any point.

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damn. you must be the best poker player on earth. geez. i would like to stake you for 20/40. i'll have to sell my car but it will be worth it.

seriously, man. i know some damn talented LHE players and they have ALL swung down 500 bets or more at one point in time. 500k hands? are you sure?

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12% VPIP 30% WTSD 3 AF

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See that augie? He really is the best poker player on earth. Man, did he show you...

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I think his point was that he's a tight player, and because of that, he has a lower SD. I think it's very possible for a 12 VPIP to not have any >150 BB swings.

[TemetNosce]

Yep.