Performify's Pigskin Picks - Week Ten

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I told you I didn't like last week, and it showed with my first losing percentage week of the season. This week I'm much happier with our game selection. I'm betting against two home underdogs this week, picking three road underdogs, and picking a couple games that the public favors as well. A little unusual for those who regularly follow my picks, as I'm usually about finding value in plays opposite the public, but I think this is another week (like last week) where the public's terrible trend of opening the season regresses towards the mean a little bit.

Last week: 2-3 with my first losing % week of the season. Loss on game of the week.
24-19 for the year (55.8%), 6-3 on Game of the Week (67%)

This week, recommending a standard 5-3-2-1-1 graduated play. As usual, all lines listed current from Bodog, but please lineshop aggressively.

Dallas +3 at Philly
The Eagles lost 33-10 in Dallas last month. The Eagles are much better at home than on the road, but homefield isn't going to be enough to erase the differential between these two teams. Eagles are missing center Hank Fraley which is a huge loss for their team. Fraley made all the line calls, which means someone else is going to have to step up, and with Dallas showing a lot of varying blitzes out of their 3-4, line pickups against the blitz are critical. The Cowboys are rested coming off a bye week and will have analyzed Philly's loss to Washington in depth. Look for Dallas to blitz unmercifully up the middle on defense to create a lot of pressure on McNabb, with Dallas LB DeMarcus Ware having a big game. Look for Dallas to go run-heavy on offense, combining Julius Jones and Marion Barber to keep fresh legs attacking the Eagles who are vulnerable up the middle. Westbrook will be stuffed on the ground, probably having less than 50 yards rushing. No one wants to admit it, but the Eagles are going to miss TO after losing this week. Especially with LJ Smith questionable (concussion), Philly is really hurting for offensive playmakers. Look for Dallas to build an early lead and runs out the clock in the second half. Dallas is 3-0-1 ATS in their last four games, Phily is 2-7 ATS in their last nine overall. Get on this game now, its going to move off three soon. If the line moves much off three by the time you want to get on it, I suggest a moneyline play because Dallas going to win this one outright. 21-17 Dallas. Game of the Week.

Chiefs +2 at Buffalo
In their first two intra-division meetings with the AFC East, KC rolled up 198 yards and three touchdowns against the Jets in week one and 185 and three more against the Dolphins in week seven. Now coming off a huge week at home against Oakland, Larry Johnson is eagerly anticipating facing the 31st-ranked Buffalo rush defense which is allowing 151 yards a game on the ground. Larry Johnson is actually more of a big play threat than Priest Holmes and the Chiefs will run all over Buffalo. The casual bettor might not see this, and only sees that KC has lost their #1 RB, but Larry has been ready to step in to the spotlight all season, and should have a huge game, espcially with his speed on the turf surface. Interestingly enough, this is a matchup between the top two running backs of the 2003 draft: McGahee was the first running back drafted at #23 overall, Larry Johnson was the second RB picked, #27 overall. The Chiefs are without pro bowl tackle Willie Roaf, but that actually hurts the passing game worse than the running game (it forces KC's best receiving option TE Tony Gonzales to stay in and block more). Buffalo has injury concerns on the O-line, look for the agressive KC d-line and speedy linebackers to stuff the run and force the Bills to go to the air. However Holcomb is not a mobile QB, so in addition to stuffing the run the Chiefs speedy linebackers should have a big day sacking Holcomb, whose sacks-per-play number is one of the league's worst. KC is 11-3 when having a 100-yard rusher dating back to 2003, the Bills are 9-2 when McGahee pulls off the feat. However, the Chiefs haven't allowed a 100-yard individual rusher in 15 games, the second-longest streak in the NFL behind Pittsburgh (20 games), while Buffalo ranks 31st in stopping the run as I've already mentioned. First RB to 100 yards wins this game, and its going to be LJ. KC Coach Dick Vermeil is 4-0 vs. Buffalo, and the Bills are 4-10 vs. AFC West since 1997. KC's #1 CB Patrick Surtain has moved from questionable to probable and is expected to play, and if not CB Dewayne Washington did a solid job starting last week against Oakland (awarded two game balls, for defense and special teams player of the week) and can step up again this week. For what its worth, Wagerline has this game 69% - 31% in favor of KC, so I'm picking a pretty strong public favorite here, which is the only thing keeping this game from being Game of the Week because absolutely everything I'm seeing favors KC here. 24-16 Kansas City for the outright win.

St. Louis +7 at Seattle
Rams are coming off a bye week and will return Bulger, Holt and possibly Bruce on offense, and "Big" Leonard Little on defense. If Bruce can't play, Curtis has blown up against Seattle in the past two years, so I don't see that as much of a disadvantage. This game is very similiar to the situation last year, where Seattle had a chance to distance themselves from the Rams in the NFC West, but the Rams staged a 17-point comeback in Seattle to pull off a big victory. Bulger has won four of his last five starts vs. Seattle. Seattle starts two rookies at linebacker, and Steven Jackson should have a field day. The Rams really need this win, they'll stay within a game of Seattle for the NFC West, versus falling three games down if they lose. 6/6 USA Today experts, 4/4 Yahoo experts and 83% of the Yahoo public all pick Seattle, and the general public is 2-1 for Seattle (67%-32%) according to Wagerline. I look for the Rams to win this game outright, so a small moneyline play here also has good value. If the Rams can't manage the win, I very strongly expect this game to be a cover or at worst a push. The Rams have massive backdoor cover potential with their potent passing attack. 27-24 St. Louis for the outright win.

Washington -1 at Tampa
Joe Gibbs has his team so well-coached that they're playing almost a perfect game each week (following the gameplan, minimizing turnovers, etc). Tampa's gameplan is to run the ball on offense and get after the passer on defense. Tampa Bay has averaged 57 rushing yards in its three losses, and the Redskins will do everything they can to stuff rookie RB Carnell Williams and force the game onto the arm of struggling QB Chris Simms including eight and sometimes nine in the box. Gregg Williams' defense has forced five of its six turnovers and 10 of its 14 sacks against young quarterbacks (Kyle Orton, Alex Smith and Eli Manning), so look for Williams to relentlessly blitz Chris Simms and force sacks and turnovers. Look for a couple corner blitzes out of Washington CB Shawn Springs - if rookie Simms can't make the right read and get rid of the ball quickly to that side, Springs will light him up and can force turnovers on the blitz. The Bucs are 3-20 when they lose more turnovers than they force, and that trend is going to come in to play here. The Redskins' max protect offense will help to slow down the Tampa pass rush and give Santa Moss time to get open. Despite the Redskins' hot offense, Washington will need to win this game on defense and on special teams. This will be the Bucs' third straight loss, killing any chances of going to the playoffs. Washington is 7-2 ATS in the last nine meetings between these two teams, while Tampa is 1-5 ATS in their last six overall. 17-10 Washington.

Denver -3 at Oakland
The Broncos are coming off the bye week and looking to take a big lead in the AFC West race. The Broncos are 12-4 in games following a bye week, only the Vikings and the Eagles are any better coming off the by (13-3 each). Denver is also 15-5 against Oakland since Mike Shanahan became coach in 1995. Shanahan still has a feud with Raiders owner Al Davis, who fired Shanahan in 1989. Oakland is going to pound the ball with Lamont Jordan and work off play action passes, but it won't be enough. Both teams have secondary problems Denver will likewise pound the ground with RBs Mike Anderson and Tatum Bell, while QB Jake Plummer will then take shots at the Raiders' beat-up secondary. Jake Plummer is coming off by far his best game of the season, a 309-yard, four-touchdown outing against the Eagles. Cornerback Champ Bailey should be ready to go for this week's matchup against banged-up Raiders receiver Randy Moss. Bailey is listed as probable on the injury report and practiced at full speed on Wednesday and Thursday, the first time in weeks he hasn't been limited in practice. Ultimately, Denver manages to build an early lead and then the one-two punch of Anderson and Bell will wear out the Raiders defensive line. For what its worth, Wagerline has this game 69% - 31% in favor of Denver, so I'm picking a pretty strong public favorite here. 28-24 Denver.

As usual, all picks archived on my blog Performify.com where you can often find additional discussion in the comments...

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Recommend adding one unit on St. Louis moneyline at +240 as a pure value play, and one unit on Dallas at +125 to offset the added juice of the line if you're playing at -3 (-120) or higher (I've seen it as high as -125).

Purely for fun (I know its -EV overall) and because so many of the games I like this week are in prime location to be teased, adding this eight team teaser:

Kansas City Chiefs +8
Chicago Bears -7
Detroit Lions +2
Houston Texans +23½
Denver Broncos +3
Washington Redskins +5
St. Louis Rams +13
Dallas Cowboys +9

1 unit to win 15 units.

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No line moves that require adjustment, at least not yet. Will check back in here about an hour before kickoff for any last minute adjustments.

Chiefs have moved to +2.5, nothing super significant. Doubt that its going to head to +3 before gametime but we can always hope. I will add a unit at +3 if it does move there.

Washington seems to have crossed to +1, from -1. Not sure how to evaluate that move - not super significant I think, obviously just changes a possible push. Would be nice for the big teaser though as that would move to +7.

Pats remain a 80% favorite at Wagerline, so I feel fine suggesting a small play on Miami as a public opinion fade. I'm not 100% convinced, so I dropped a two unit tease on Miami +9 Under 48.5. Looks like free money, despite the -EV tease.

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Some brutal results today, 1-3 with one game pending. -6.8 units.

First the good:

Miami +9 / Under 48.5, 2 unit tease: win

As expected, free money. Only regret was not dropping more than two units.

Denver -3 : 1 unit win

Denver game looked pretty much exactly as expected. Denver dominated on the ground, Raiders were never in the game.

Now for the ugly:

Kansas City +3: -4.4 units

This game went pretty much exactly as predicted - KC shut down McGahee, sucessfully pounded the ball on the ground. However Trent Green throws three interceptions and a fumble, looking like Alex Smith instead of a leading vetran. Absolutely insane. I feel comfortable with my analysis, this should have been a win.

Washington -1 @ Tampa: -1.1 units

Tampa's Cadillac did get shut down. However never expected this to turn in to the shootout it did. Tampa did win the turnover battle which is what kept them in the game... and Washington did lose the game on defense. Allowing the last minute TD drive and two point conversion at the end was simply inexcusable. Brutal watching this end. Still, should have been a push (stopping the conversion) or a possible win in OT.

Rams +7 -3.3 units. Moneyline play, -1 unit.

The rain here didn't help, but this game should have been a push. Rams looked like they'd have an opportunity for a late backdoor cover or even a win, but a Rams receiver fumbles the ball in the redzone. Even so should have been a push, except for S.A. breaking a third-and-short into a 30-yrd touchdown with thirty seconds left for a garbage touchdown to cover the spread.

Monday game, game of the week, still pending.

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Adding two more units on Dallas at +3 as a chaser, which will break even if Dallas covers and show a ~1.5 unit profit for the week if Dallas hits and wins outright.

Open play:

Seven units Dallas +3
One unit Dallas moneyline +125

[BreakEvenPlayer]

I should be 197-1 this year. (I was on the Skins vs. the Giants when they got shut out... only bad pick I've ever made)

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Well the game was not exactly like expected, although the result (Dallas outright win) was predicted and the predicted score was close. Pretty ugly (but exciting) game. But a win is a win.

2-3 on the week, win on Game of the Week.
Thanks to the recommended unit adjustments, +8.25 units from the MNF win, +1.45 unit profit on the week.

Yearly results:
26-22 for the year (54.16%), 7-3 on game of the week (70%)

Philly showing the balanced running attack really impressed me, and obviously Dallas wasn't prepared for that. Philly's offensive line also clearly won their individual battles on pass protection, McNabb was never under serious pressure all night. Philly's trend of being able to shut down strong rushing teams at home continues, something that very much suprised me (and the Dallas offensive plan, it seemed). Philly's backup center was a factor, causing a fumble (recovered by Philly) and at least one penalty (and possibly others, not sure if all the false starts were his fault or the rest of the line's), but overall he played better than expected - didn't really miss a lot of assignents. Dallas did not seem to blitz as much as expected, however. Biggest development of the game is the potential injury to McNabb. Hopefully he's ok.

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Just realized that my count of units for the week was wrong. I'd mistakenly indicated four units for KC and three units for StL, despite clearly posting (and playing) three and two units respectively. Doing the math wrong in this thread meant that I recommended a larger chaser on Dallas, which works out to a slightly larger profit for the week.

Miami +9 / Under 48.5, 2 unit tease: win +2 units
Denver -3 : 1 unit win
Kansas City +2: -3.3 units
Washington -1 @ Tampa: -1.1 units
Rams +7 -2.2 units. Moneyline play, -1 unit.
MNF, Dallas +3 +7 units. Moneyline play, +1.25 units

Total for the week: +3.65 units. +2.65 units if you followed along on the "clearly marked as just for fun" 8-team teaser, which only covered 6/8 (losing KC and StL).

[dankhank]

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