QQ Turn (Warning: Math)

I think the combinations are inaccurate. My problems with it include:

-The omission of hands like KQ, KJ & AK.

-The unlikelihood a "solid player" is playing 78o, or 96s/92s out of the BB for a raise.

-The guesswork involved in estimating how often he holds 77, etc.

While the numbers are definitely debatable, assuming they're accurate you still need to take into account your effective odds. It's highly probable you'll have to call 2 BBs to snap off a bluff. Therefore, it's likely even with your estimations a call remains unprofitable.

With that being said, I think you're over thinking this hand. Villain bluffs here very rarely, less than 10% of the time in my opinion. I'd look at this situation like this:

-I have 2 outs to outdraw villain.

-Villain bluffs here around ~10% of the time. My effective odds are ~10:2, which is insufficient to call down.

-10% of the time villain's bluffing, he'll likely follow through with a river bet ~70% of the time. Therefore, I'd consider the possibility of a bluff worth (3% * 46) 1.3 outs on the turn. Total of 3.3 outs (1.3 + 2 drawing outs)

Therefore, I'd fold the turn comfortably.

Disclaimer - Only a quick analysis, so the above may be riddled with errors. [img]/images/graemlins/shocked.gif[/img]