The Problem(s) with Raising with Small Pairs

[DoomSlice]

Let's say that you decided to raise in the CO with 44 (a move that is probably profitable for the sheer ability to steal blinds, but that move is dependent mainly based on your position and your opponents, not the actual hand you are holding). If your opponent is not the type who is going to get stacked with only top pair against a preflop aggressor, then your raise has probably cost you money.

For simplification let's say that your opponents view you as a tight player and respect your raises. So in order to take advantage of this fact, you decide to make a standard preflop raise with the above hand (44 if anyone has forgotten).

The flop decision boils down to two outcomes: 1) you hit a 4 on the flop and thus have a hand that you want to take to showdown, or 2) you miss completely and are forced to bet again (or just give up, but I'm going to assume that we believe that continuation bets are +EV).

The more interesting situation is, of course, #1 since with #2 you can begin to play this the same was as if you held 72o. Now if your opponent is a thinking player (and it is my opinion that people give way too little respect to the levels of thinking that your opponents have), then he is probably not going to invest too much money into the pot UNLESS he beats the hand that you are representing (overpair). So basically every time that you fire at the pot he'll be folding unless he made at least top pair (and many will fold top pair too!). In contrast, if you had just limped into the pot, your opponent now has no reason to believe that you have an overpair, so he is much more likely to continue with a hand that you have drawing dead/close to dead.

I've got to go now... I'll finish my thoughts on this later. Comments appreciated/welcome.

[amoeba]

think about how often villain flops a pair.

[Mercman572]

villain won't flop a pair often as amoeba said, and when he does he most likely won't stack off in a limped pot anyway. think about the times we hit a set, 1 in 8 times. Those odds combine won't be high enough to try to set mine. When we raise we can continue bet, and the small flops that villain believes doesn't hit us may, or he might try to lead a blank flop himself, in which case we can call and take away on the turn, or perhaps with a REALLY good read, call down knowing he's on overs.

Yes its the same as raising any two, accept there is the possibility (that you must assess based on reads) that your pair can win UI

UI = Unimproved?

[Mercman572]

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UI = Unimproved?

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yep

[pokerjoker]

I would be amazed if people figure you for an overpair everytime you raise from CO. I am about 5%pfr and I raise
KJ+ and sometimes more from unopened CO.

having a 2.5bb-3bb pot to bet into when you hit ur set 'cause u limped from CO is no fun too.

[NYCNative]

It's like raising from LP with anything, really - cards are irrelevant. You get a caller, make a CB and either take it down or give up. Remove this play from your arsenal because of the times that villain hits their hand and you lose money.

[Mercman572]

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Remove this play from your arsenal because of the times that villain hits their hand and you lose money.

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I think the amount of times a player folds preflop, added to the percentage of times they will check fold a flop, and added to the still smaller amount of times they will make a hand vs your set, PLUS the small possibility of creating an image and getting better hands paid ( [img]/images/graemlins/shocked.gif[/img]) can make this a profitable play.

Of course sound judgement is needed as to whether an opponent will fold, whether the blinds will begin to "defend" or other players will begin to view you as a bully, and their likelihood of folding a missed flop are all things that should be taken into consideration when making the decision to raise.

[punter11235]

I think raising any pair in any position is very very profitable. You will break about even from times when you dont flop a set and you will make a fortune with your sets because its easier to stack people in raised pots than it is in unraised pots.
My experience tell me that this is single most valuable preflop advice in NL. Open raise any pair :-)
Edit : I am talking about 6max of course

Best wishes