JJ from BB vs early raise

[tim.daughters]

I played a difficult hand recently in a 1-2 NLHE cash game. I'd be interested in other players views. Now, that the hand is over, I can do an in-depth analysis for myself, but there is no time for that in the heat of action.

Here is the situation:
I am in the big blind holding JJ and about 100 in chips. The first two players fold, and the player in seat 3 makes a standard raise to 6 chips. I have seen this player on several occasions and know him to be generally tight, but no too aggressive. Overall, a decent player, especially compared to the many weak players who frequent these games. I expect him to have solid values with a raise from this position--probably a big to medium pair, AK, or maybe AQ.

It gets folded around to me, and I call. I think calling is the right play, here. It ends the betting, and I am definitely too strong to fold. A re-raise might get me some information, but I'd rather see the flop at 2:1 odds.

The flop comes AJT with the A suited to the J in clubs. I'm pretty happy with this flop. I don't think my opponent would open for a raise with KQ. He might have AA and have me in big trouble, but of all the hands I expect him to hold, that is the only one I am worried about. The clubs are no concern. The only suited cards I expect him to play are AK and AQ, and those would need to be in another suit, now.
I expect that he will bet if I check to him, and am not disappointed. He bets 12 chips (about the size of the pot) and I check-raise him for 18 more. He just calls. That probably eliminates AA from his range of hands, although he could be worried that I have KQ. Having me call from the BB with KQ suited or perhaps not isn't out of the question from his point of view.

So far, so good. Now, the turn brings an offsuit K for a board of AJTK. It's time for me to start squirming. I decide to check and see what my opponent does. I can call a bet for 1/2 the pot or so, since I have 10 outs to beat a straight, and I might even be winning if he holds AK or TT. If he holds the nuts, perhaps he won't want to bet too big.
Well, no such luck. He bets enough to put me all in. Now, I have to call 65 chips to win 135. That's not good enough odds to draw to the full house, so I fold.

Now, the post mortem analysis:
After he calls my check-raise on the flop, I think I need to limit him to AA, KK, QQ, TT, AK, would he stay with AQ? I think he would fold pairs smaller than tens. Now, let's count the ways I win and lose:

AA: There are 3 ways for him to have this, but I am going to discount it by 50%, since I would expect him to re-raise my check-raise on the flop. That's 1.5 ways that I am dead to the remaining J or split with one of 4 Qs.
KK: We'll allow all 3 ways to have this. Again, I have 1 win, 4 splits, 39 losses.
QQ: There are 6 ways he can have this hand. There are 10 cards that win for me. Plus the two remaining Qs split.
TT: 3 ways to have this. I lose to the remaining T, split to 4 Qs, win with the 39 other cards.
AK: 9 ways to have this. I lose to an A or K (4 cards) split to a Q (4 cards) win with the 36 other cards.
AQ: 12 ways to have this. Perhaps I should shade that down, because he might fold to the check raise, but I'm including them all here. I have 10 cards to win and 3 splits.

Now, if my math and my analysis are correct, I win 41%, split 8%, and lose 51%. I guess a call was in order after all. The problem is that I need to do all of this analysis in about 15 seconds.

Any comments?

[Bukem_]

Hate the flop cr size.

[BigBiceps]

[ QUOTE ]
So far, so good. Now, the turn brings an offsuit K for a board of AJTK. It's time for me to start squirming. I decide to check and see what my opponent does. I can call a bet for 1/2 the pot or so, since I have 10 outs to beat a straight, and I might even be winning if he holds AK or TT.

[/ QUOTE ]

I would put a blocking bet of about 1/3 the pot on the turn, and if he raises you all in then call.

[tim.daughters]

But, what purpose would this strategy serve? If I am planning on calling an AI raise, I should just take the initiative and go all in.

[Godfather80]

[ QUOTE ]
Hate the flop cr size.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, your checkraise put 54 "chips" in the pot with your opponent needing to call only 18. So, you are giving him 3:1. Which, in and of itself, isn't horrible, but you are also out of position. Personally, I think the play is to lead the flop for a pot sized bet, hope to get raised, and 3-bet all-in.

[MTBlue]

Check raise flop all-in or damn close to it. These stack sizes are awkward and this board isn't going to look any prettier for your hand.

[Godfather80]

[ QUOTE ]
Check raise flop all-in or damn close to it. These stack sizes are awkward and this board isn't going to look any prettier for your hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

I thought about this as well, but doesn't this fold out almost every hand that hero is ahead of? Do you think leading and hoping to 3-bet is a better line?

[MTBlue]

Nobody is folding two pair/AK or AQ/ TT maybe even KK or QQ depending on how loose the player is. This is a live game with short stacks and big hands don't come around that often. I think the three bet is a viable option but I also think alot of hand go into check call down mode on this board so the likely of hood of a three bet is minimal and a higher percentage of the time the bettor will bet and call an all-in than he will raise.