Handreading (maybe content)

AllIn3High · #1 11-11-2005, 06:00 PM

UTG is a nitty TAG 13/5/1.5 and doesn't have too many moves in him. Probably a very winning player at SSNL. Even though this is 600nl the situation / opponent is the same as at $100 through $400nl.

What do you put UTG on and how should hero react?

Note: $20 is the standard opening raise at the table and UTG hasn't made any adjustments just because it's 5-handed as opposed to 6-handed. Hero has been playing 22/13/2 but hasn't gotten out of line postflop.

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ Hero (6 max, 5 handed) pokerhand.org hand converter

Button ($680)
SB ($134.55)
Hero ($646.65)
UTG ($696.35)
MP ($225.36)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. SB posts a blind of $3.
UTG raises to $20, 3 folds, Hero calls $14.

Flop: ($43) 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero checks, UTG checks.

Turn: ($43) 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero bets $35, UTG raises to $85

4_2_it · #2 11-11-2005, 06:02 PM

Hello AA-JJ. Time to fold.

AllIn3High · #3 11-11-2005, 06:05 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Hello AA-JJ. Time to fold.

[/ QUOTE ]
Why would he check the flop in position with either of these hands?

Barklad · #4 11-11-2005, 06:08 PM

Your flop check is pretty weak so villain could have as little as AKs (diamonds). Call the raise evaluate again on the turn.

elus2 · #5 11-11-2005, 06:18 PM

to get you to bet the turn.

4_2_it · #6 11-11-2005, 06:20 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Hello AA-JJ. Time to fold.

[/ QUOTE ]
Why would he check the flop in position with either of these hands?

[/ QUOTE ]

Villain is a rock, not a TAG. He wanted to make sure you didn't have a 7. I have seen many rocks play their monsters this way.

Another poster said he has AK. I would say that is the low end of his range, but is certainly very possible. It is hard/impossible to stack rocks without a premium hand so I am hesitant to go to war with the lowest possible overpair.

If winning this hand is important to you then your only hope is to re-raise all-in that turn and pray the rock lays down his AA or KK.

I really think villain laid a trap for you. Checking this hand all the way down is not a bad play against a 15/5.

AllIn3High · #7 11-11-2005, 09:05 PM

Hmm, ok, I don't see how you all read a straight forward player as trapping with AA-JJ here. I'll share what I thought:

Stats: While I agree that 13/5 is rock-ish stats for 6-max I read it more as a full ring player that hadn't really adjusted to 6-max (or maybe was playing scared?)

Preflop: He raises UTG, I'm thinking AA-TT,AKs-AJs,KQs,AK,AQ maybe AJ.

Flop: Ok, he checks a drawtastic board, I doubt he's doing that with a made hand. I also think he'd bet with a club draw with overcards but I don't think it's impossible that he checks behind with one either fearing a check-raise. While it is certainly possible that he checks behind with TT-AA to trap I don't think it's likely.

Turn: I bet out to take down the pot and avoid giving a free card, I think he'll fold all overcard draws here, he knows it would be stupid to draw to a few possibly good outs. This leaves overcards with the picked up diamond draw (and still over cards with the club draw). His raise, while it could mean that he was trapping with AA-TT, is still consistent with a flushdraw + overcards, he knows i could bet here with a wide range of hands and thinks a semi-bluff here might blow me off a pair.

I estimate something like:
overcards + [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]'s : 65%
overcards + [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]'s : 20%
trapping with big pair / full house : 10%
other hand / pure bluf : 5%

Is my reasoning totally fscked?

If we assume my estimates are resonably how should I proceed?

Malachii · #8 11-12-2005, 12:54 AM

FWIW, I agree with Allin3High here. I think a pocket pair bets this flop 100% of the time. Turn raise is fishy, but I don't think this is a higher pocket pair, I think this is a missed AK or something that feels like you're putting a play on him. I would call and check/call a reasonable bet on river.

#9 11-12-2005, 01:57 AM

your reasoning makes sense to me - TAG should bet his overpair on the flop most of the time.

-Skeme- · #10 11-12-2005, 04:38 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Why would he check the flop in position with either of these hands?

[/ QUOTE ]

It's a safe flop to slowplay Aces on.